中东欧与中欧及高加索地区一周前瞻 18 9月

关键论点

• 波兰8月工资增速或较7月（受一次性支付提振）放缓，但仍高于6%（同比），下行趋势预计将持续。
• 波兰8月建筑产出在7月同比下降后预计稳健回升，受国家复苏计划（NRP）融资项目和固定投资支撑；住宅建筑仍是唯一薄弱环节。
• 捷克消费者信心在前期显著下滑后可能企稳，但年底前后物价上涨或令其承压。
• 阿塞拜疆央行预计将再融资利率维持在6.50%不变，政策措辞或更偏风险关注，不排除鹰派指引。

对应原文证据

1. In July, wage growth was boosted by one-off payments in some sectors (energy, forestry), and we estimate that earnings growth eased in August but probably remained above 6% year-on-year, supported by the ongoing recovery in industry and a favourable calendar effect.
2. The general downward trend in wage growth is likely to continue in the coming months, and domestic price pressures remain contained even as headline CPI rises on the back of the energy shock.
3. The pace of the decline in enterprise sector employment was probably unchanged, remaining at 0.8% YoY.