Belgian building permits rebound continues but the recovery faces challenges

中文标题

比利时建筑许可反弹持续，但复苏面临挑战

ING THINK09/30/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Belgian building permits rose 8% year-on-year in H1 2026, led by a 12% gain in new construction and a 5% rise in renovation, though non-residential renovation fell 2%. July housing permits jumped 51% month-on-month, lifting annual growth to 11%. Yet materials prices were up 8% year-on-year in July, long-term and mortgage rates have risen since Middle East escalation, new mortgages fell around 10% in Jan-Aug, and construction order books have weakened since July. The Flemish plan to raise registration duties from 2% to 3% adds policy uncertainty.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/30/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

The H1 2026 permit rebound is real but leaves volumes historically low and the recovery fragile.
Higher energy prices are feeding into construction materials, with the index up 8% year-on-year in July 2026 and precious/non-ferrous metals up 36%.
Rising long-term and mortgage rates since the Middle East escalation are cutting affordability, with new mortgages down around 10% in Jan-Aug 2026.
The Flemish plan to raise registration duties on the sole family home from 2% to 3% adds policy uncertainty and may dampen demand further.

Key numbers

H1 2026 total building permits: +8% y/y
H1 2026 new construction permits: +12% y/y
July 2026 housing permits: +51% m/m, +11% y/y
July 2026 building material prices: +8% y/y
Jan-Aug 2026 new mortgages: about -10% y/y

Main risks

Higher energy prices keep construction material costs elevated, feeding into new home prices.
Structurally higher financing costs are unlikely to reverse soon, limiting any housing demand boost.
Policy uncertainty from the planned Flemish registration duty increase may further weaken demand.

Corresponding source evidence

The recovery was mainly driven by new construction permits, which increased by 12% year-on-year, while renovation permits also posted a more modest gain of 5%.
In the renovation market, growth was confined to residential projects, where permits increased by 6% compared to the previous year.
Non-residential renovation activity, by comparison, resumed its downward trend since April and is currently 2% lower than a year ago.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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