The Commodities Feed: Middle East conflict keeps oil well supported · THINK Economic and financial analysis
中文标题
大宗商品日报：中东冲突令油价获得良好支撑 · THINK 经济与金融分析
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ICE Brent settled 1.8% higher, just shy of $107/bbl, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf supply risks outweigh scepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Hurricane-related shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico have fallen to 605k b/d. TTF front-month gas settled above EUR84/MWh, its highest since December 2022, on winter LNG supply concerns. LME copper traded near record highs after a fatal avalanche at Chile's El Teniente mine.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 10/13/2026
- Research topic
- Natural Gas
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- Oil remains well supported as the market focuses on Persian Gulf supply risks, including Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
- The market is sceptical of the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and the US-Russia diesel deal, with reported Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy targets.
- Saudi Arabia plans to expand pipeline export capacity to 10m b/d from 7m b/d, with 1.2m b/d available in 7-8 weeks.
- European gas prices are elevated on reduced Persian Gulf LNG supply and mandated EU storage buying, with storage just shy of 75% versus an 89% five-year average.
Key numbers
- ICE Brent settlement
- 1.8% higher, just shy of $107/bbl
- Gulf of Mexico oil shut-ins
- almost 605k b/d, nearly 30% of total US Gulf production
- TTF front-month gas
- above EUR84/MWh, highest since December 2022
- EU gas storage
- just shy of 75% full, vs 83% last year and 89% five-year average
- Yangshan copper premium
- near $130/t, close to a four-year high
Main risks
- Persian Gulf supply disruptions could escalate, keeping oil prices well supported.
- Scepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire persists amid reports of continued strikes.
- European gas market could see spikes higher if winter competition between Asian and European buyers intensifies.
Corresponding source evidence
Expansion beyond this would take more time, possibly as much as 3 years.
The European natural gas market continues to see stronger prices.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · NATGAS
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ING THINKThe Commodities Feed: Middle East conflict keeps oil well supported · THINK Economic and financial analysis | 10/13/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankCommodity weekly Fuel tightness and gold demand support recovery | 10/09/2026 | Bearish | — | Not stated |
| MUFGMiddle East Daily | 10/07/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankCommodity weekly Broad losses mask persistent supply risks | 10/02/2026 | Bearish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/13/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction