Kpler Blog

[Kpler] Distillates continue to drive support for margins, according to a Kpler blog post dated Nov 10, 2026. The post, titled "Distillates continue to drive support for margins," did not provide specific price, spread or volume figures in its summary.

[Kpler] AIS spoofing and GNSS interference are not the same risk and do not fall under the same clause, according to an analysis published by Kpler. Kpler said jamming, spoofing and manipulation differ in the nature of the risk, and that marine underwriters need to distinguish among them because the distinction determines how a claim is treated. The analysis, published on April 26, 2026, is aimed at the marine insurance intelligence sector.

[Kpler] Kpler outlined two winter 2026-27 scenarios for the Russian oil industry: an easing of Ukraine's drone campaign could return up to 500 kbd of Russian diesel to global markets, while renewed attacks risk jet and diesel shortages. According to Kpler, whether the drone campaign eases or shifts toward light gasoil will decide if up to 500 kbd of Russian diesel returns to global markets this winter.

[Kpler] TTF crossed €100/MWh for the first time since December 2022, rising 14.2% week on week, according to Kpler, as Middle East risk and an early European cold snap lifted the benchmark and pulled Asian spot LNG above $32/MMBtu for the first time in nearly four years. Kpler said a potential post-midterm US strike on Iran and colder weather in Europe drove the move, with Asian LNG prices rising to remain competitive.

[Kpler] Kpler and Airbus have signed a strategic agreement to deploy a daily vessel detection service. According to Kpler, the service is designed to see every vessel, even when AIS goes dark.

[Kpler] Diesel arbitrage into Europe remained closed for a second week as freight climbed, though the West Coast India to Mediterranean route sits about $4/t from opening, according to Kpler. Spot USGC to UKC freight hit 465WS, its highest since April, keeping transatlantic diesel arbitrage shut.

[Kpler] Q1-27 power prices in France and Germany have doubled, but mild weather and lower gas burn point to downside risk, according to a Kpler blog post published Oct 28. Kpler said its expectations for this winter are based on data-driven analysis of power markets, and asked whether the market has priced in too much risk.

[Kpler] Iraqi Basrah crude exports rebounded toward 3.00 Mbd in October, according to Kpler.

[Kpler] Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports from the Black Sea have fallen to a minimum, leaving Baltic routes and shifts in importer sourcing to drive trade, according to a Kpler grains fundamentals analysis published Oct 26. Kpler analysts also assessed corn, soybeans and El Nino risk for South American planting, tracking Black Sea trade shifts, El Nino yield impacts and pricing risks.

[Kpler] Global refined products demand is forecast to fall 2.4 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2026 and then rebound by 2.5 mbd in 2027, according to Kpler, with structural losses in China and Europe. Kpler said feedstock shortages, high pump prices and airspace closures are driving the 2026 slump, while EVs, LNG trucks and gas displacing fuel oil will keep the 2027 rebound uneven.

[Kpler] Iranian oil on water outside the blockade zone has hit zero, putting Iran's oil revenues on course to vanish by mid-December, according to Kpler. Kpler said escalation before the US midterms looks like Tehran's least bad option as the last Iranian cargoes discharge and the blockade bites.

[Kpler] Sulphur supply remains tight, with exports via the Strait of Hormuz at about 55% of the pre-war pace, according to Kpler data. Kpler said the impact varies across China, Chile, Morocco, Indonesia and African copper producers. Kpler said its data can track sulphur supply, Gulf ports, China imports and sulphuric acid flows, in an update dated Oct 25, 2026.

[Kpler] Trend-following CTAs that reach 100% long in Dutch TTF natural gas have historically lost 7%, while 100% short positions returned 25%, according to a Kpler study published Oct 21, 2026. Kpler said wider volatility-based exits let gains slip away. The study offers actionable insights into algorithmic trading behaviour.