WTI原油报$100美元，美联储9月加息概率升至90%

关键论点

• 因伊朗与海湾国家航运会谈推迟，油价回吐涨幅，但周末紧张局势仍高企：胡塞武装推进，沙特在据报遭袭后关闭东西向管道；布伦特全周收涨8.7%。
• 美国8月CPI符合预期，但预计FOMC将加息25个基点，10月可能再加一次，此举既为抑制当前通胀，也为恢复债市信心并锚定中期通胀预期。
• 澳大利亚国债收益率升至2011年以来最高，市场定价9月RBA加息概率略低于80%，11月行动已完全定价，隐含年底现金利率4.74%。
• 美国9月消费者信心降至47.8，预期指数为1975年以来最弱（1980年3月除外）；1年期通胀预期升至4.6%。

对应原文证据

1. Global equities were mixed, with US and European markets rebounding on a US CPI outcome broadly in line with expectations and lower oil prices, while elevated energy costs continued to weigh on Asian markets.
2. Elevated oil prices continued to weigh on Asian markets, while a US CPI outcome broadly in line with expectations, together with a pullback in oil prices, supported sentiment in Europe and the US.
3. •US equities posted their first gain of the week on Friday as an inflation print broadly in line with expectations and a drop in oil prices supported sentiment.