预期开始转向不利于美元

关键论点

• 尽管市场对美国经济增长信心依然坚定，美元指数仍从99.96小幅回落至99.1，其中日元交叉盘的波动最为显著。
• 日元走强取决于日本央行兑现政策，以及当局成功引导机构资本流动；只有如此，154的水平才能维持并进一步延伸。
• 只有在美股经济下行风险兑现时，欧元和英镑才具备兑美元的上行空间；年底前汇率可能相对稳定。
• 随着通胀风险消退、增长转向生产率，亚洲货币应逐步升值，预计新加坡元和人民币到2028年底上涨。

对应原文证据

1. Nonetheless, the US dollar has edged lower over the past month from 99.96 to 99.1.
2. However, as that level is 32% above the pair’s long-term pre-pandemic average (1990-2019), there is clearly plenty of scope for a material upside surprise for the yen. · 2019
3. Data has generally been positive for the Euro Area and UK; although growth is, at best, converging to trend while the US continues to outperform.