每日观点：今日美联储决议中哪些内容值得关注？

关键论点

• 市场普遍预期加息25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，关注点在于投票分歧和最新经济预测，而非决议本身。
• 大部分紧缩已被定价，货币市场预计近四次额外加息，而瑞银预测两次，因此收益率或美元出现鹰派意外的空间有限。
• 人工智能资本支出预计增长约三分之一，从2026年的9000亿美元升至2027年的1.2万亿美元，在利率上升之际支撑增长。
• 标普500指数2026年每股收益350美元、2027年400美元（增长25%和14%），可抵消更高贴现率，使涨势延续但伴随波动。

对应原文证据

1. The US Federal Open Market Committee votes on interest rates Wednesday and is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%.
2. The decision represents a major policy test for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including his ability to build consensus and manage market expectations around the degree of guidance provided on the interest rate path ahead.
3. On the other side of the equation, resilient economic activity, robust earnings, and continued AI-related investment suggest the economy can withstand efforts to address above-target inflation.