每日：股票应能承受收益率走高

关键论点

• 尽管收益率和油价上升，股票仍保持韧性，全球股票仅比8月历史高点低1.9%，标普500指数较纪录高点下跌不到3%。
• 稳健的经济增长应有助于吸收更高利率；美国工厂活动连续八个月扩张，欧元区8月制造业PMI创四年多新高。
• 强劲的盈利增长应支撑股票：瑞银预测标普500指数2026年盈利增长25%，2027年增长14%；欧元区今明两年盈利均增长15%。
• 人工智能相关投资仍是强大推动力，甲骨文云销售额增长121%和台积电8月营收同比增长超过53%创纪录得到验证。
• 估值随盈利上升而下降，使股票更不易仅因收益率上升而大幅回调。
• 瑞银看好人工智能、电力与资源、长寿领域的结构性增长机会，并建议跨行业和地域广泛配置。

对应原文证据

1. Inflation remains front of mind for investors as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes oil prices higher and fuels a sell-off in Treasuries.
2. A broadly in-line print is likely to strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week, following Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent hawkish comments, strong labor market data, and persistent supply bottlenecks. · next week
3. Fed funds futures now imply a 72% chance the US central bank would bring the target rate 25 basis points higher to 3.75-4% on 16 September.