每日观点：曲线趋平并不指向经济衰退

关键论点

• 曲线趋平或倒挂表明货币政策更趋限制性，但经济结果取决于美联储最终加息幅度，以及活动、就业、盈利和信贷是否随之恶化。
• 倒挂与衰退的关系并非机械对应：彭博数据显示，自1978年以来平均领先约15个月，而2022年的倒挂并未出现市场普遍预期的衰退。
• 活动稳健、就业扎实、盈利强劲并受人工智能投资提振，均不支持衰退迫近，尽管消费者信心降至四个月低点。
• 瑞银预计美联储12月再加息一次，而非市场定价的更长时间紧缩，并看好股票，同时强调分散配置，并对固定收益维持“具吸引力”评级。

对应原文证据

1. The so-called bear flattening, where short-end yields rise faster than long-end yields, raises the possibility that 10-year Treasuries could soon yield less than shorter maturities, creating an inversion that has historically preceded US recessions.
2. The flattening of the yield curve has accelerated since the Federal Reserve raised rates this month, with shorter-term yields moving higher as markets price at least three additional quarter-point increases over the coming year. · this month
3. The curve indicates that monetary policy is becoming more restrictive, but the economic outcome will depend on how far the Fed ultimately raises rates and whether activity, employment, earnings, and credit conditions subsequently deteriorate.