每周底线 · TD经济学

关键论点

• WTI升破每桶100美元重燃全球通胀担忧并推高债券收益率，但沙特管道流量恢复缓解了部分供应担忧。
• 市场计价全球政策收紧，包括加拿大央行到2027年中加息四次。
• 加拿大核心通胀表现良好（1.9%和2.0%；三个月折年2.2%），央行可继续按兵不动。
• AI相关波动与油价上涨表明增长仍具韧性，但令通胀回落至2%的路径复杂化。

对应原文证据

1. Commodity Spot Prices** Foreign Exchange Cross Rates Fixed Income Yields Stock Market Indexes September 18, 2026 Weekly Bottom Line Highlights Canada U.S. Current Target Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate) 3.75 - 4.00% Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate) 2.25% European Central Bank (Refi Rate) 2.65% Bank of England (Repo Rate) 3.75% Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate) 1.25% Source: Bloomberg. · 2026
2. Global Official Policy Rate Targets Central Banks • WTI’s rise above $100 per barrel has revived global inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher, although prospects for restored Saudi pipeline flows have eased some immediate supply fears.
3. • Persistent inflation and more momentum than expected in the economy led the Federal Reserve to raise inter - est rates this week. · this week