美国利率策略周报

关键论点

• 本周10年期美债收益率触及4.80%，创2025年5月以来新高，但期限溢价仍呈区间波动。
• 企业债券发行量庞大、美联储政策不确定性及油价推升期限溢价至区间上沿。
• 财政部回购公告和沃什主席的鹰派讲话逆转了期限溢价的上行趋势。
• 财政可持续性担忧尚未将期限溢价推至2025年后的区间之外。
• 自3月以来债券已连续六个月下跌，历史表明收益率下行的风险回报有利。
• 预计8月CPI环比上升0.3%（同比3.3%），核心CPI环比上升0.2%（同比2.4%），受汽油和住房动态驱动。

对应原文证据

1. But the upward drift in the premium was reversed following the Treasury’s buyback announcement . Although Chair Warsh did not provide any forward guidance at his Jackson Hole appearance, his hawkish tone seemed to alleviate concern that the Fed had lost some of its inflation-fighting credibility, pulling the premium lower. · recent
2. Irrespective of when actual buying materializes, elevated yield levels alone could encourage investors with short positions to begin covering. Similarly, 10-year Bund yields recently touched 3.40%, a level where we expect demand to emerge. · near-term
3. Yields have risen for six consecutive months. Since 1970, there have been only three other instances of such a streak, and only two episodes that extended to a seventh consecutive monthly increase. History suggests that the risk-reward increasingly favors positioning for lower yields following such an extended move higher. · 6-7 months