082526 消费者安全边际收窄

关键论点

• 实际可支配收入增速从2023年6月的7.2%同比峰值大幅放缓至2026年6月的0.5%。
• 尽管收入增长疲弱，个人消费仍比疫情前趋势高出0.8%。
• 家庭为支撑支出已将其储蓄率降至2.7%，为有记录以来最低水平之一。
• 负储蓄时期与强劲财富增长（尤其是股票财富）密切相关，使财富成为消费的边际驱动因素。
• 消费前景高度暴露于资产价格变化。

对应原文证据

1. Despite this, personal consumption is running 0.8% above its pre-Covid trend. · current
2. This robust level of spending has been made possible by households reducing their savings rate to just 2.7% (July data are released August 26), which is among the lowest readings on record! · current
3. Key to this dynamic is that periods of dissaving are tightly associated with robust wealth gains (shown below), meaning that wealth, equity wealth in particular, has become a marginal driver of consumption. · current