全球经济学与外汇策略 · 外汇展望

关键论点

• 随着利差优势削弱，美元指数正处于看跌反转的早期阶段；市场定价显示年底前仅有略超40个基点的美联储加息预期，这为美元带来下行风险。
• 该行预计美联储将在2027年全年维持3.75%的政策利率不变，但对预测信心不足，承认短期存在进一步收紧风险、未来存在宽松风险；核心PCE三个月移动均值折年率约为3%。
• 加拿大央行鹰派按兵不动、删除中性指引，且预计累计加息75个基点，支持USDCAD下行；该行目标为2026年四季度1.37、2027年四季度1.33。
• 欧洲央行与日本央行已为9月加息铺垫，英国央行倾向在年底前行动；掉期市场定价日本央行到明年7月累计加息近90个基点。
• 市场情绪与仓位已转向不利美元：风险逆转指标回到中性，完全逆转了3月美伊紧张局势带来的美元上行保护溢价；CFTC数据显示美元多头押注遭大幅平仓。
• 美元的结构性风险依然存在：美国财政赤字与经常账户赤字规模庞大，且全球投资组合过度集中于美元资产。
• 贸易加权商品货币（澳元、新西兰元）因澳洲联储与新西兰联储鹰派指引及贸易条件改善而跑赢；拉美货币表现分化，墨西哥比索坚挺、秘鲁索尔稳定、智利比索受能源进口成本拖累。

对应原文证据

1. Price action in the DXY has largely mirrored the shift in fundamentals with a clear erosion in support offered by interest rate differentials as the outlook for relative central bank policy makes a renewed bearish turn against the USD.
2. Expectations for Fed tightening continue to lean hawkish however the outlook for near - term tightening has faded somewhat with a notable moderation in the pricing of rate hikes this year. · this year
3. Fed Chair Warsh has forcefully defended the central bank ’s commitment to price stability and the pursuit of a 2% inflation target while simultaneously exhibiting a considerable amount of caution in the Fed ’s overall assessment of inflation.