加拿大经济韧性十足，产能缺口迅速收窄——迫使加拿大央行收紧政策全球经济

关键论点

• 第二季度GDP环比折年率上修至3.8%，第三季度追踪为2.0%，显示经济在早前放缓担忧后仍具韧性。
• 传统产出缺口在两个季度内被削减三分之二，从一季度的约-1.4%降至三季度的约-0.5%。
• 由于闲置产能几近闭合且存在其他通胀驱动因素，加拿大央行可能需要从利率中性区间下限以及实际政策利率大致为零或负值的水平开始收紧。
• 7月GDP分项表现不一，建筑和公用事业上升，但制造业、采矿/油气和零售下降，部分回吐6月涨幅。

对应原文证据

1. Canada’s 2 -year yield climbed 2 – 3bps and CAD was flat post- data with the BoC priced as a coin flip in a month’s time and 32bps priced for December’s meeting.
2. The only reason for it not being higher is because June GDP was revised up a tick to solid growth of 0.4% which posed a higher than expected jumping off point.
3. Q2 GDP growth is tracking 2% q/q SAAR based on what we know about Q2 and most of Q3 while assuming September GDP will be flat solely in order to avoid skewing the math before we get any September data.