加拿大央行发出鹰派警告

关键论点

• 加拿大央行删除了政策利率仍然“适当”的表述，标志着立场转变。
• 加拿大央行明确警告通胀上行风险增加。
• 行长麦克勒姆表示10月份的预测将指导下一次决策。
• 麦克勒姆承认可能连续加息。
• 市场已定价至明年夏天加息75-100个基点。
• 国内数据好于央行预测，第二季度GDP为3.3%，而预测为2.8%；通胀为3%，而预测为2.7%。
• 能源价格和中东冲突被视为通胀的主要上行风险。

对应原文证据

1. The policy rate was unchanged at 2.25% as universally expected · immediate
2. it struck out reference to how “the current policy rate remains appropriate.” That omission speaks volumes when combined with the next point. · immediate
3. They also explicitly warned that “upside risks to inflation have increased” in statement codified fashion and in Governor Macklem’s opening remarks. · 6 months