债券、人工智能，以及一场持续至今的牛市

关键论点

• 中东担忧加剧之际美债反而上涨,与债市已对美国资产失去信心的说法相矛盾。
• 通胀预期受控与美元强势,并非市场抛弃美国资产的特征。
• AI信用利差走阔反映市场对高杠杆、现金流不确定借款人的甄别,作者称其为健康市场的特征。
• 推理成本下降与企业采用扩大,削弱了AI支出缺乏底层需求支撑的观点。

对应原文证据

1. Treasury yields were rising,1 and prominent investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio, raised concerns over the sustainability of US debt and the bill finally coming due.
2. The conflict in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices13 present another legitimate headwind, potentially weighing on growth and keeping headline inflation elevated in the near term. · near-term
3. Treasuries haven’t appeared to have lost their safe-haven status.14 Credit markets appear to have been doing the healthy work of separating stronger borrowers from weaker ones.