市场速览 - AI警告打击芯片股，十年期收益率在美联储前触及5

关键论点

• 头部AI开发者呼吁放缓前沿模型研发，引发半导体集中抛售，网络安全股则上涨。
• 市场定价美联储加息25个基点的概率约92%，叠加8月核心CPI（环比+0.3%）偏热，支撑短端收益率与美元。
• 布伦特原油连续第四日低于110美元，反映沙特东西管道停运与成品油供应紧张。
• 德法10年期利差接近98个基点，显示欧元区碎片化风险重现。

对应原文证据

1. • Volatility: Equity volatility firmed into the Fed window while one-day pricing stayed notably calm • Digital Assets: Crypto spot slipped while exchange and stablecoin shares jumped before a Senate vote • Commodities: Brent holds below USD 110 for a fourth day as gold stages a modest rebound • Fixed Income: New post GFC high in 10-year US Treasury yield.
2. • Currencies: USD firmer as wobbly risk sentiment and new post-GFC highs in some US treasury yields weigh • Fed rate hike imminent: Markets are pricing in a ~92% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
3. Goldman Sachs and HSBC both revised their calls to include a September hike following last week's hotter-than-expected August CPI print (core CPI +0.3% m/m).