宏观信号 | 随着老年工人退休，劳动力成本缓解

关键论点

• 自2025年末以来，就业人口比率下降而失业率下降，这是历史上罕见的背离。
• 劳动力供给的快速收缩是关键驱动因素，源于结构性变化，如更多年龄较大、收入较高的工人退休。
• 整体劳动力需求依然疲软，这些结构性力量可能限制劳动力成本。
• 劳动力市场不是通胀压力的来源；影响包括缓和工资通胀和抑制单位劳动力成本。
• 这应有助于美联储在必要时适当应对更广泛的通胀压力。

对应原文证据

1. Since late 2025, the employment/population ratio has moved lower even as the unemployment rate has declined. This appears to be without precedent in modern history: Since 1949, for every comparable decline in the employment/population ratio, the unemployment rate rose, and typically by more than the employment/population ratio fell · since late 2025 to present
2. Evidence suggests that overall labor demand remains tepid as well, and these structural forces may themselves be limiting labor costs. · current
3. the net effects of the structural forces affecting labor markets include moderating wage inflation and subdued unit labor costs. · medium-term