华侨银行每日国库展望（2026年8月14日）

关键论点

• PPI和CPI数据疲软强化了美联储将在9月维持利率不变的预期。
• PPI中的潜在管道压力仍然较高，表明通胀尚未完全受控。
• 油价下跌在一定程度上缓解了通胀压力，但中东地缘政治风险依然存在。
• 通胀数据疲软后，美国国债收益率大幅下跌，2年期报4.14%，10年期报4.65%。

对应原文证据

1. US stocks advanced Thursday as back-to-back soft inflation prints reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its September meeting, driving the S&P 500 to a record close · short-term
2. underlying pipeline pressures bear monitoring: PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose by 0.4% MoM, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month, and remained elevated at 4.7% YoY · medium-term
3. geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain elevated, as efforts to revive the earlier interim peace agreement have shown little progress. · medium-term