昔日危机的幽灵将萦绕中期选举

关键论点

• FOMC在9月加息后将利率上限维持在4.0%；Warsh主席计划每年安排一次仅讨论战略、不投票的会议。
• 整体与核心PCE符合预期，但继夏季数据偏冷后，最近两次数据明显偏热。
• 除非数据出现重大变化或金融条件大幅收紧，12月加息被视为几成定局。
• Natixis本月早些时候对长端转为中性，认为实际收益率的必要结构性上调可能已完成；维持自约4.88%做多2年期的观点，并下调止损。

对应原文证据

1. +1 929 688 6923 selin.aker@natixis.com Discover more on our Website The Ghosts of Crises Past to Haunt the Midterms “By the pricking of my thumbs, Something wicked this way comes.” -William Shakespeare (Macbeth) ► Inits October meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its policy rate unchanged at an upper bound of 4.0%.
2. Headline PCE inflation rose 0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y, while Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, in line with expectations.
3. We also continue to hold to our long recommendation in 2yrs from ~4.88% but trail our stop lower.