九月就业回顾：回归现实

关键论点

• 9月新增就业2.9万，低于9万的市场预期，且8月增幅由16.2万下修至13.3万，说明现有放缓趋势延续而非趋势断裂。
• 三个月和十二个月平均新增就业分别为5.1万和4.1万，仍高于多数估计的、可使失业率稳定的盈亏平衡水平。
• 参与率上升使失业率小幅升至4.175%（四舍五入为4.2%），时薪环比仅涨0.1%，因此劳动力市场未增加任何通胀动力。
• 由于通胀仍是美联储首要关切，此数据降低了10月乃至12月加息的紧迫性，Natixis预计本轮周期仅再加息一次，少于市场定价。

对应原文证据

1. Payrolls rose just 29k, falling from the (revised lower) print of133k inAugust and the broad trend suggests still that the labor market issolid, but unspectacular.
2. The three-month rate ofpayroll gains stands at51k while the yearly gains averages 41k, both above most estimates ofbreakeven rates that would stabilize unemployment.
3. The labor market, importantly, isnot adding to any inflationary impulse, with wage growth even lower than the typically tepid gains in the last year, rising only 13bps m/m.