Jackson Hole回顾：脚踏实地但不可预测

关键论点

• Warsh 的讲话明确鹰派，强调反通胀进展不足，并准备在通胀未改善时加息。
• 由于 Warsh 拒绝前瞻性指引和明确利率路径，美联储的反应函数变得更难预测。
• 9 月的决定将非常接近，但 Natixis 倾向于基于对劳动力和通胀数据走软的预期再次按兵不动。
• 前瞻性指引被视为过时，增加了投资者的不确定性。

对应原文证据

1. That ambiguity is deliberate as Warsh rejects a mechanical Taylor rule and believes an explicit rate path would recreate the shortcomings of forward guidance. Investors therefore received a clearer assessment of the current state of play, but not the predictable reaction function many wanted. · medium_term