FOMC前瞻：推动反通胀进程加速的一次微调

关键论点

• Natixis 预计美联储将政策利率上调至 4.0% 上限，为三年来首次加息，也是 Warsh 主席任内首次。
• 8 月核心 CPI 因一次性因素高于预期，巩固加息预期；政策制定者对一次性因素的容忍度下降。
• 鉴于 Natixis 对去通胀的乐观看法，仅需最小幅度调整；此次加息可能是一次性的。
• 2026 年点阵图终值或升至 4.1%，暗示再次加息，但离散度大削弱信号。

对应原文证据

1. +1 929 688 6923 selin.aker@natixis.com Discover more on our Website FOMC Preview: A nudge to hasten the disinflation We expect the Fed to, for the first time inthe Warsh era, raise its policy rate to an upper bound of 4.0% at this week’s meeting, but we expect little signal about what will come next. · this week
2. Chair Warsh will likely emphasize that this meeting’s decision isdiscrete and does not pre-commit the Fed toany actions insubsequent meetings, giving he and the Committee maximum flexibility to respond to shocks.
3. US MACRO INSIGHTS 2 What to expect on Wednesday We expect the Fed toraise its policy rate toan upper bound of4.0%, marking its first rate increase in three years and the first in the Warsh era.