人民币：乘势走强

关键论点

• 未结汇贸易收入存量庞大，为人民币提供锚定：8月货物结汇率高达69.7%，进口商购汇占付款比重由7月的60.7%降至57.8%。
• 央行连续第九个交易日上调中间价，为2023年11月以来最长纪录，且发生在美元整体走强之际，显示对升值的容忍度上升。
• 时点选在特朗普与习近平峰会前具有战术意义，表明北京愿在潜在关税谈判前应对外部压力并处理贸易失衡。
• 外部支撑——8月出口同比增长25%、前八个月贸易顺差接近8060亿美元——正压过国内疲软与约2.8%的年化负利差。

对应原文证据

1. We previously argued that in 2H26 CNY will gradually strengthen against the USD (Keep calm and carry on –why CNY resilience will persist ).
2. We continue to see this trend in the latest net FX sales data, further amplified by a marked slowdown in importers' conversion of CNY into USD.
3. Given that the pace of yuan strength has exceeded our previous expectations, we are adjusting our year-end USDCNY forecast to 6.60 from 6.70 previously.