英国央行前瞻：11月加息，同时保留政策选项

关键论点

• 整体CPI达3.5%、服务业通胀达3.7%，使英国央行更难将能源冲击视为暂时性。
• 私营部门常规薪资增速从2.9%升至3.0%，为2024年底以来首次上升，整体常规薪资增速为3.7%。
• 三季度GDP可能超过英国央行0.4%的预测，表明政策限制性可能低于假设。
• 若冲突持续且通胀压力不退，4月仍可能加息。

对应原文证据

1. 27 October 2026 EMEA M ACRO S NAPSHOT BoE Preview: A November Hike, While Keeping Options Open We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25bp on Thursday (5 November), with the MPC vote potentially shifting from 6–3in favour of holding rates to 6–3in favour of ahike. · October 2026
2. Stronger-than-expected inflation —particularly services inflation, now approaching 4%, and an increase in core inflation —alongside a modest pickup in private-sector wage growth, supports our view.
3. The resilience shown in GDP data and business surveys also suggests that monetary policy may not be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to target.