美元维持偏弱，美国以外地区加息预期升温外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 美国房市数据疲弱拖累美元，但MUFG认为因房市非美联储政策重心，拖累应有限。
• MUFG仍预计美联储12月再加息一次，且鉴于9月通胀更强，不能完全排除10月背靠背加息。
• 美国以外加息预期升温，构成美元偏弱的背景。
• 日本9月贸易逆差扩大，源于能源进口成本上升，仍是日元的不利因素。

对应原文证据

1. 1 21st October 2026 USD remains softer as rate hike expectations build outside of US 21 st October 2026 USD: US housing market and rate hike expectations outside of US in focus The major FX rates have remained relatively stable overnight with the US dollar continuing to trade at modestly weaker levels. · October 2026
2. The releases of the latest US housing starts and pending home sales reports for September both came in much weaker than expected declining by - 5.2%M/M and -7.3%M/M respectively.
3. It was new record low for pending home sales since the series began back in 2001.The NAR chief economist stated that “mark et conditions weakened in September due to fast- rising mortgage rates”, although he held out some hope that “buyers and sellers may simply be holding back until mortgage rates move favourably”. · 2001