美国CPI报告对美联储加息预期和美元至关重要外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 今日美国CPI对美联储加息定价与美元具有决定性影响；PPI走强推动隐含加息从13个基点升至18个基点。
• CPI月率若持平或强于0.2%的预期，将维持加息预期并支撑美元。
• CPI若走软，可能因削减加息押注、而其他央行继续收紧而引发美元更大抛售。
• 欧洲央行鹰派更新与能源价格上涨支撑欧元，前提是欧元区增长保持韧性。

对应原文证据

1. The risk of a deeper correction lower for global equity markets if energy prices and bond yields continue to push higher would increase the likelihood of bigger spillovers into the FX market.
2. The sell-off in global bond markets accelerated yesterday alongside rising energy prices with the price of Brent hitting a fresh high of overnight at close to USD110/barrel.
3. The sell-off in global bond markets was also reinforced by the release of the stronger than expected US PPI report for August which has added more weight to the case for the Fed to begin hiking rates next week. · next week