Tlines 全球机构情报
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中东日报

多经济体
可引用研究简报

核心结论 · Tlines 提取

报告指出,由于美伊协议前景减弱和航运中断,油价上涨;美联储加息预期降温,黄金维持在接近创纪录高位;受胡塞威胁影响,沙特将原油改道绕开曼德海峡;土耳其预算赤字扩大;中东信贷交易清淡。

机构
三菱日联金融集团
发布时间
2026/08/18
研究主题
Oil price direction · WTI · Gold price level
时间范围
short-term · medium-term

关键论点

  • 由于美伊协议前景减弱和船只遇袭加剧供应风险,油价上涨。
  • 美国数据疲软和美联储加息预期降低支撑金价,但高收益率限制上行空间。
  • 由于胡塞威胁,沙特将原油改道绕开曼德海峡,影响运输成本。
  • 由于高支出和利息支付,土耳其7月预算赤字大幅扩大。
  • 中东信贷市场交投清淡,变动有限。

关键数字

布伦特价格
高于91美元/桶
WTI价格
接近85美元/桶
黄金价格
接近4400美元/盎司
土耳其7月预算赤字
3781亿土耳其里拉(80亿美元)
沙特延布原油流量下降
近90%
西迪基里尔装载量纪录
217万桶/日

主要风险

  • 中东局势进一步升级可能扰乱供应。
  • 持续的通胀和高国债收益率可能限制金价上行。
  • 红海航运威胁可能增加成本和延误。
  • 如果利息成本上升,土耳其财政压力可能恶化。

对应原文证据

  1. Oil extended gains as prospects for a near-term resolution of the US-Iran war weakened and another vessel was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. · short-term
  2. Gold steadied near USD4,400/oz, as softer US economic data weakened the dollar and reduced expectations for further Fed tightening. Markets are no longer fully pricing in another rate hike this year, although elevated long-term Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns continue to limit gold ’s upside. · short-term
  3. President Trump indicated little interest in extending the expired agreement with Iran, while major differences remain over Hormuz, where Iran is negotiating separately with Oman. · short-term

条件 / 失效条件

  • 如果美伊冲突升级
  • 在胡塞威胁持续期间
  • 除非削减利息支出并出现央行降息

上下文:结论为 Tlines 自动提取,并非机构原话;带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。

在原始来源核验 ↗
研报原件

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

第 1 页

1 年 18 月 2026 日

中东日报

18 月 2026 日

大宗商品 / 能源

美伊协议前景黯淡,油价上涨。由于美伊战争近期解决的前景减弱,且霍尔木兹海峡再次发生船只遇袭事件,油价扩大涨幅。布伦特原油升至每桶 91 美元上方,连续第三个交易日上涨,而西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)交投于每桶 85 美元附近。特朗普总统表示对延长与伊朗已到期的协议兴趣不大,而霍尔木兹问题仍存在重大分歧,伊朗正在与阿曼单独谈判。一艘驶出海峡的船只被不明射弹击中,加剧了市场对航运安全的担忧。尽管出现中断,海湾产油国通过霍尔木兹海峡或绕道运输原油的能力正变得更加有效,沙特阿拉伯越来越多地提供来自替代出口点的货物。与此同时,美国似乎更强调经济压力及其对伊朗港口的封锁,而非立即进行军事升级,预计还将实施更多制裁。

Gold holds near USD4,400/oz as Fed rate hike expectations ease. Gold steadied near USD4,400/oz, as softer US economic data weakened the dollar and reduced expectations for further Fed tightening. Markets are no longer fully pricing in another rate hike this year, although elevated long-term Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns continue to limit gold ’s upside. Middle East tensions remain an important inflation risk, with renewed fighting in Lebanon, fading prospects for extending the US- Iran truce and continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold has nevertheless remained supported by renewed investor demand and stronger central- bank purchases, particularly from China. Going forward, the Fed’s July meeting minutes and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks will be key for the rate outlook, while developments in the Middle East remain important risks for gold.

CAPE OF GOOD HOPE TANKER FLOWS SURGED

Source: Bloomberg, MUFG Research 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

02-Feb09-Feb16-Feb23-Feb02-Mar09-Mar16-Mar23-Mar30-Mar06-Apr13-Apr20-Apr27-Apr04-May11-May18-May25-May01-Jun08-Jun15-Jun22-Jun29-Jun06-Jul13-Jul20-Jul27-Jul 03-Aug10-Aug17-Aug

Cape of Good Hope (West>East) Crude Oil tankers crossings(7 day rolling total) Cape of Good Hope (East>West) Crude Oil tankers crossings(7 day rolling total)

Middle East Daily

SOOJIN KIM Analyst DIFC Branch –Dubai T:+971 (4)387 5031 E:soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp

MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc A member of MUFG, a global financial group

第 2 页

2 18 八月 2026 中东 –信贷交易

收盘评论 –17 八月 2026。今天成交量极低,即便是那些喜欢在流动性不足的日子里强推自己头寸的街头玩家,也大多在休假或懒得推动债券价格。我们的价差略微收窄,今日波动不大,客户活动极少。PT 账户试图回补其粘性空头并清除粘性多头,但目前尚不清楚效果如何,因为他们的询问中似乎没有多少成交。我们有一些本地买家购买沙特阿拉伯的主权伊斯兰债券,还有一些与指数相关的交易涉及新的 SRCSUKs。沙特次级债务有一些供给,但伊斯兰债券的 AT1 仍受到良好支撑。PIFKSA 和 ARAMCO 曲线整体未变。巴林方面,今日曲线报价走低,但尚不清楚是否有供给驱动,因为在我下调定价之后仍未见到多少询价。中长期债券下跌 ½至 ⅝ 个点,或走阔7-9bp个基点。(来源:Matthew Dunker,信贷交易员)

中东 –宏观经济 / 市场

土耳其7月预算赤字大幅扩大。土耳其中央政府在7月转为TRY378.1bn(USD8bn)的赤字,而去年同期仅为TRY23.9bn,原因是支出增长显著超过收入。收入同比增长28.8%至TRY1.41tn,但支出激增59.8%至TRY1.79tn,其中利息支出因借贷成本上升和央行(CBRT)37%的政策利率而增加143%至TRY326.8bn。非利息支出也上升了48.4%,人事成本增加了43.3%。因此,尽管税收收入稳健增长37.3%,1月至7月的累计赤字仍达到TRY1.32tn。财政部长Mehmet Şimşek坚称财政政策仍与政府目标一致,并指出部分税收收入被有意放弃以支持去通胀并缓冲国内需求。这些数据凸显了高偿债成本带来的财政压力,即使土耳其的外部状况已显示出改善迹象。利息支出的走势和CBRT降息的时机将是使全年赤字保持在接近GDP的约3.5%目标的关键。

沙特阿拉伯重新调度原油运输路线,因胡塞武装威胁扰乱红海航运。在胡塞武装宣布封锁沙特航运并开始攻击油轮后,沙特阿拉伯已将大部分运往亚洲的原油从曼德海峡转移路线,这除了霍尔木兹海峡的中断外,又增加了对海湾出口的一项限制。据报道,8月初,从延布经曼德海峡的沙特原油流量下降了近90%,而埃及地中海港口西迪基里尔的装货量飙升至创纪录的2.17百万桶/日,主要通过SUMED管道供应。其他货物正绕道好望角,增加了运输时间、运费和油轮可用性的压力,而一些船只关闭了应答器以减少攻击风险。沙特阿美强调其能够利用包括SUMED和苏伊士运河在内的多条出口路线来维持交付。胡塞武装威胁的持续时间、替代路线的运力限制和不断上涨的航运成本将决定沙特阿拉伯能多有效地维持出口,这可能对亚洲原油供应和欧洲燃料市场产生影响。

日历 – 数据/事件/会议

国家 日期和时间 指标/事件 时期 共识 前值 市场移动*

TU 8/18/2026 11:00 房价指数(同比) 7月 -- 24.50% !

IS 8/18/2026 CPI预测 8月 -- 1.90% !

来源:彭博、MUFG研究;* 彭博相关性评分在“!”、“!!”和“!!!”之间

第3页

3 18 8月2026 E

市场指标

Stock markets Index Chg, % Sovereign bonds Yields, % G-S*, bp Chg, bp Coup, % Daily YTD Daily Daily YTD Regional Short-term bonds (1-2 years) MSCI GCC 749 -0.37 2.00 Bahrain 2028 7.083 287.48 0.00 1.61 7.000 Bahrain 1,952 -0.05 -5.56 Kuwait 2027 4.392 50.51 -0.01 0.07 3.500 Kuwait 10,439 -0.69 20.15 Oman 2027 4.837 81.09 0.00 0.36 6.750 Oman 7,541 0.08 28.53 Qatar 2028 4.565 43.18 0.01 0.58 4.500 Qatar 9,892 0.00 -8.09 KSA 2027 3.015 25.38 0.01 0.61 0.750 Saudi Arabia 10,908 -0.11 3.98 UAE 2027 4.351 33.53 0.00 0.41 3.125 Dubai 5,856 -0.50 -3.16 Egypt 2027 5.769 176.03 0.00 -0.90 5.800 Abu Dhabi 10,077 0.29 0.84 Turkey 2027 5.416 141.07 0.00 0.19 8.600 Egypt 55,415 -0.79 32.48 Israel 2027 3.228 63.58 0.01 0.33 1.500 Israel 4,175 -0.67 14.95 Jordan 2027 5.111 125.16 -0.01 -0.61 5.750 Turkey 14,132 -0.28 25.49 Jordan 200 -1.14 9.17 Medium-term bonds (3-5 years) Bahrain 2030 7.244 292.65 0.00 1.40 7.375 Oman 2030 5.048 72.46 0.02 0.75 4.875 International Qatar 2030 4.815 49.21 0.00 0.75 9.750 MSCI World 5,008 -0.43 13.04 KSA 2030 4.883 58.53 0.00 0.57 4.750 MSCI EM 1,710 0.49 21.73 UAE 2030 4.638 32.59 -0.01 0.74 3.125 CSI 300 4,695 -0.97 1.41 Egypt 2030 7.376 302.82 0.02 -1.01 7.625 DAX 26,339 -0.38 7.55 Turkey 2030 6.359 203.12 0.01 0.30 9.125 DJIA 53,460 -0.51 11.23 Israel 2030 5.103 77.67 0.00 0.34 2.750 EURO STOXX 50 6,530 -0.14 12.76 Jordan 2030 5.654 132.74 0.00 -0.53 5.850 FTSE 100 Index 10,720 -0.28 7.94 Nikkei 225 67,752 -2.12 34.59 Long-term bonds (6+ years) S&P 500 7,745 -0.52 13.14 Bahrain 2035 7.573 291.35 0.00 -0.09 7.750 Qatar 2035 4.968 31.68 0.00 -0.06 4.875 3m interbank rates % Chg, bp KSA 2035 5.247 66.43 0.00 -0.04 5.000 Daily YTD UAE 2034 4.968 36.79 0.00 -0.05 5.000 Bahrain 5.16 0.06 3.54 Turkey 2035 6.991 234.90 0.01 -0

.04 6.500 Kuwait 3.56 0.00 0.00 Israel 2037 4.323 107.55 0.00 -0.02 2.375 UAE 3.96 0.30 13.90 Qatar 4.10 -0.59 3.14 International bonds (10 years) Saudi Arabia 4.74 -2.34 -2.40 US Treasury 4.741 --- 0.02 0.41 4.625 Turkey 16.01 0.00 0.00 German Bund 3.220 --- 0.00 0.46 3.000 SOFR 3.73 -0.34 2.08 UK Gilt 5.059 --- 0.02 0.32 4.750 Japan Government Bond 2.934 --- 0.02 1.37 2.700 Exchange rates Rate Chg, % Daily YTD Commodities USD Chg, % USD/BHD 1yr fwd 168.09 -3.14 -9.93 Daily YTD USD/KWD 1yr fwd -132.00 0.47 32.31 Brent 100.30 0.73 52.12 USD/OMR 1yr fwd 7.50 50.00 -50.00 WTI 91.64 0.91 49.57 USD/QAR 1yr fwd 7.22 220.89 -81.97 Gold 4,028 -0.55 1.67 USD/SAR 1yr fwd 86.75 1.52 -75.38 Copper 13,595 -0.02 13.96 USD/AED 1yr fwd -18.97 -2.54 49.47 Aluminium 3,188 0.45 9.05 USD/EGP 1yr fwd 20.03 0.80 -13.88 EU natural gas 4,028 -0.55 1.67 USD/TRY 1yr fwd 39.90 -0.06 -9.96 US natural gas 62.55 1.62 132.16 USD/ILS 1yr fwd -441.42 -1.24 -214.40 Iron ore 98.15 0.05 -11.23 Coal 227.00 -0.52 5.61 Commodities (BCOM) 706.13 1.31 21.17 Energy (BCOMEN) 460.39 1.94 40.97 Base metals (BCOMIN) 174.46 -0.59 9.41 Precious metals (BCOMPR) 1,258.09 0.99 2.19 Agriculture (BCOMAG) 4,028 -0.55 1.67

来源:彭博、MUFG研究;* G-spread = 相对匹配货币主权曲线的插值债券利差

第 4 页

4 18 八月 2026 免责声明

MUFG 银行有限公司(“MUFG 银行”)是一家在日本注册成立的有限责任股份公司,并在东京法务局注册(公司编号 0100-01- 008846)。MUFG 银行总部位于日本东京都千代田区丸之内 4 -5 丁目 1 号(邮编 100-8388,)。

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机构免责声明
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AI 分析

由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文

多机构观点对比 · WTI

机构 / 研报发布日期方向原文已核目标价时间范围
三菱日联金融集团中东日报2026/08/18看多—short-term
盛宝银行商品周报:黄金企稳,石油供应紧张与增长担忧令市场分化2026/10/16看多—未明确
加拿大丰业银行经济研究全球经济学 · 每日要点2026/10/16看多—未明确
澳大利亚联邦银行伊朗战争:更多石油正在流动,但局势升级的风险正在上升2026/10/15看多—未明确

本页如何生成

本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 MUFG 于 2026/08/18 发布的研报中提取并结构化,用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问,并已在上方完整展示。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正