Tlines 全球机构情报
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中东日报

多经济体
可引用研究简报

核心结论 · Tlines 提取

MUFG的中东日报强调,由于霍尔木兹协议的不确定性持续,油价延续涨势,而黄金因通胀担忧回升至每盎司4,400美元上方。海湾合作委员会2026年上半年债务发行表现韧性,约旦加快水务基础设施投资。区域信用利差小幅走阔,市场活动不一。

机构
三菱日联金融集团
发布时间
2026/08/12
研究主题
Geopolitical risk · Oil · Inventory
时间范围
near-term · medium-term

关键论点

  • 由于市场对霍尔木兹协议即将达成持怀疑态度,油价延续涨势,地缘政治风险溢价居高不下。
  • 在通胀担忧和美联储利率前景不确定性支撑下,黄金回升至每盎司4,400美元上方。
  • 2026年上半年海湾合作委员会债券发行同比增6.5%至1,027亿美元,由传统债券驱动。
  • 由于严重缺水,约旦加快水务投资,包括国家输水工程等项目。

关键数字

布伦特原油价格
每桶89美元以上
西德克萨斯中质原油价格
接近每桶84美元
黄金价格
每盎司4,400美元以上
美国原油库存增加
9.1百万桶/日
预期7月CPI环比
0.1%

主要风险

  • 霍尔木兹协议的时间和条款不确定性可能使油价的地缘政治风险溢价持续存在。
  • 据报道美国原油库存增加9.1百万桶/日,可能对油价产生近期下行压力。
  • 黄金方向取决于美国通胀数据以及能源价格对利率的压力。
  • 地缘政治波动和全球利率轨迹仍将是海湾合作委员会发行的关键决定因素。
  • 融资约束和实施挑战对约旦的水战略构成风险。

对应原文证据

  1. Despite signs of diplomatic progress, uncertainty over the timing and terms of a Hormuz agreement is likely to keep a substantial geopolitical risk premium in oil prices · near-term
  2. while a reported 9.1mb/d rise in US crude inventories could provide some near-term downside pressure. · near-term
  3. Looking ahead, GCC debt issuance is likely to remain supported by sovereign and corporate funding requirements, although geopolitical volatility and the trajectory of global interest rates remain key determinants of issuance activity and funding costs. · medium-term

条件 / 失效条件

  • 如果报告的9.1百万桶/日的增加得到确认

上下文:结论为 Tlines 自动提取,并非机构原话;带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。

在原始来源核验 ↗
研报原件

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

第 1 页

1 年 12 月 2026 日

中东日报

12 年 2026 月

大宗商品 / 能源

油价延续涨势,霍尔木兹协议不确定性持续。布伦特原油升至每桶 89 美元上方,WTI 原油交投于每桶 84 美元附近,连续第六个交易日上涨,因市场仍怀疑恢复霍尔木兹海峡正常航运的协议能否尽快达成。官员们表示,伊朗与阿曼的谈判已进入后期阶段,而特朗普总统对伊朗立场趋于强硬,并提出了额外要求。霍尔木兹海峡的交通仍严重受限,尽管部分石油在美国军事协助下或通过无可见应答器的船只继续经由该海峡运输。随着敌对行动蔓延至红海,地区供应风险也居高不下。尽管有外交进展的迹象,霍尔木兹协议的时间和条款仍存在不确定性,这可能使大量地缘政治风险溢价保持在油价中,而据报道美国原油库存增加 9.1 百万桶/日,可能带来一些短期下行压力。

Gold rebounds above USD4,400 ahead of US inflation data. Gold rose back above USD4,400/oz as investors weighed tentative progress toward reopening the Strait o Hormuz against uncertainty over the Fed rate outlook. Reports that the US and Iran may be nearing an arrangement on Hormuz offered some hope of easing regional tensions, although both sides continue to maintain tough negotiating positions. Meanwhile, renewed gains in oil prices have kept inflation concerns elevated ahead o US CPI data, with markets roughly split on the likelihood of 25bps Fed hike next month. July CPI is expected to rise just 0.1% m/m, and a softer print following weak US employment data could reduce pressure for further tightening. Gold remains supported but its near-term direction will depend heavily on US inflation data and whether energy price pressure strengthen the case for higher interest rates.

TRAFFIC THROUGH HORMUZ REMAINS SEVERELY CONSTRAINED

Source: Bloomberg, MUFG Research 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

05-Mar12-Mar19-Mar26-Mar02-Apr09-Apr16-Apr23-Apr30-Apr07-May14-May21-May28-May04-Jun11-Jun18-Jun25-Jun02-Jul09-Jul16-Jul23-Jul30-Jul 06-Aug

(E>W) Tankers crossings (W>E) Tankers crossings

Middle East Daily

SOOJIN KIM Analyst DIFC Branch –Dubai T:+971 (4)387 5031 E:soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp

MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc A member of MUFG, a global financial group

第 2 页

2 12 八月 2026 中东 – 信用交易

收盘评论 – 11 八月 2026。今日交投有所升温,开盘时“达成/未达成协议”的进程明显陷入僵局,这普遍推动利差走阔,同时美债价格下跌。鉴于当前时点,市场对此走势几乎未有抵抗,直到巴基斯坦方面扮演了特朗普先生,提出“协议在望”的想法,这提振了风险资产,抑制了油价,并再次扭转了美债收益率走势。虽然该头条新闻对宏观有利,但我们名单中负面惯性难以减缓,即使在现金价格上涨的情况下,利差在午后仍持续走阔。伊斯兰债券今日较为平静,但仍有买盘。巴林是今日利差方面的最大输家,今日情况已明朗:市场似乎已经完成了其想要的对冲操作,在当前水平上,几乎没有动力去回补空头或支撑利差。我将利差曲线推出,较昨日走阔 8-12bp 个基点,伊斯兰债券(显然)表现稍好,但短端更接近 +15-20bp 个基点。不过,TraX 成交量显示低于 3 百万美元。(来源:Matthew Dunker,信用交易员)

中东 – 宏观 / 市场

GCC debt issuance remains resilient in H1 2026. Primary bond and sukuk issuance across the GCC rose 6.5% y/y to USD102.7bn across 161 deals in H1 2026, highlighting continued access to capital markets despite heightened regional uncertainty. Saudi Arabia dominated issuance, raising USD49.3bn, or 48% of the regional total, followed by the UAE at USD25.5bn and Qatar at USD12.4bn, with Qatar recording astrong 32.3% y/y increase. Corporate issuance increased 8.4% to USD66.7bn and accounted for 64.9% of the market. Notably, conventional bonds rose 33.3% to USD73.6bn, whereas sukuk issuance declined 29.5% to USD29.1bn, suggesting that the overall expansion was driven primarily by conventional funding. Looking ahead, GCC debt issuance is likely to remain supported by sovereign and corporate funding requirements, although geopolitical volatility and the trajectory of global interest rates remain key determinants of issuance activity and funding costs.

约旦在严重缺水的情况下加快水务投资。约旦正加速投资于水基础设施,因为气候变化、人口增长和老化管网使得世界上最严重的缺水问题之一更加突出。可再生水的人均年供应量仅为84立方米,远低于绝对缺水的500立方米阈值,而供应量到2040年可能减少高达30%。一项由世界银行支持的水务部门效率项目旨在为1.6百万人改善服务,并通过减少管网损失、更换老化管道和现代化水系统,每年节约约10百万立方米的水。长期的核心项目是亚喀巴-安曼国家输水工程,该工程旨在每年淡化300百万立方米的水,并通过从2030铺设约438公里的输水网络,满足约旦约40%的城市用水需求。展望未来,国家输水工程的成功交付和持续减少配水损失将对改善水安全至关重要,而融资约束、实施挑战和日益加剧的气候压力仍然是约旦长期水战略的主要风险。

日历 – 数据/事件/会议

国家 日期和时间 指标/事件 期间 共识值 前值 市场动向*

JO 8/09/2026-8/14/2026 CPI同比 7月 -- 2.79% !

OM 8/09/2026-8/20/2026 CPI同比 7月 -- 2.80% !

来源:彭博,MUFG研究;* 彭博相关性评分,介于“!”、“!!”和“!!!”之间

第3页

3 12 8月2026 E

市场指标

Stock markets Index Chg, % Sovereign bonds Yields, % G-S*, bp Chg, bp Coup, % Daily YTD Daily Daily YTD Regional Short-term bonds (1-2 years) MSCI GCC 746 -0.49 1.49 Bahrain 2028 7.180 294.93 -0.02 1.65 7.000 Bahrain 1,956 -0.07 -5.37 Kuwait 2027 4.488 52.14 -0.02 0.15 3.500 Kuwait 10,340 -0.28 19.00 Oman 2027 4.849 78.39 -0.01 0.33 6.750 Oman 7,467 0.47 27.27 Qatar 2028 4.570 40.78 0.00 0.60 4.500 Qatar 10,018 -0.79 -6.92 KSA 2027 3.028 29.03 0.01 0.57 0.750 Saudi Arabia 10,833 -0.11 3.26 UAE 2027 4.400 34.40 0.01 0.44 3.125 Dubai 5,880 -0.36 -2.77 Egypt 2027 5.820 176.94 0.00 -0.80 5.800 Abu Dhabi 10,008 -0.76 0.15 Turkey 2027 5.480 143.32 0.01 0.16 8.600 Egypt 54,829 -0.09 31.08 Israel 2027 3.248 67.79 0.01 0.37 1.500 Israel 4,159 0.06 14.53 Jordan 2027 5.046 111.10 0.00 -0.72 5.750 Turkey 13,705 -0.78 21.69 Jordan 201 -0.05 9.89 Medium-term bonds (3-5 years) Bahrain 2030 7.251 292.69 -0.03 1.34 7.375 Oman 2030 5.008 67.88 0.00 0.64 4.875 International Qatar 2030 4.863 53.41 -0.01 0.80 9.750 MSCI World 4,996 -0.22 12.76 KSA 2030 4.948 63.93 0.00 0.62 4.750 MSCI EM 1,665 -0.28 18.59 UAE 2030 4.747 42.63 -0.01 0.82 3.125 CSI 300 4,694 0.65 1.38 Egypt 2030 7.405 305.62 0.03 -1.09 7.625 DAX 26,391 0.26 7.76 Turkey 2030 6.425 209.23 -0.01 0.29 9.125 DJIA 53,792 -0.34 11.92 Israel 2030 5.145 81.33 0.00 0.35 2.750 EURO STOXX 50 6,551 0.24 13.12 Jordan 2030 5.707 137.48 0.00 -0.58 5.850 FTSE 100 Index 10,844 -0.17 9.19 Nikkei 225 67,397 0.64 33.89 Long-term bonds (6+ years) S&P 500 7,728 -0.32 12.89 Bahrain 2035 7.564 294.00 0.00 -0.09 7.750 Qatar 2035 4.971 35.54 0.00 -0.06 4.875 3m interbank rates % Chg, bp KSA 2035 5.224 66.97 0.00 -0.04 5.000 Daily YTD UAE 2034 4.991 42.13 0.00 -0.05 5.000 Bahrain 5.16 0.03 3.64 Turkey 2035 7.034 242.58 0.01

-0.04 6.500 Kuwait 3.56 0.00 0.00 Israel 2037 4.314 113.06 0.00 -0.02 2.375 UAE 3.89 -0.96 11.90 Qatar 4.10 1.25 3.14 International bonds (10 years) Saudi Arabia 4.76 -4.93 -2.14 US Treasury 4.683 --- -0.01 0.39 4.375 Turkey 16.01 0.00 0.00 German Bund 3.157 --- 0.00 0.41 3.000 SOFR 3.74 -0.61 2.37 UK Gilt 4.964 --- -0.02 0.34 4.750 Japan Government Bond 2.845 --- 0.04 1.35 2.700 Exchange rates Rate Chg, % Daily YTD Commodities USD Chg, % USD/BHD 1yr fwd 171.98 -1.62 -7.85 Daily YTD USD/KWD 1yr fwd -150.86 -0.29 22.64 Brent 100.30 0.63 48.70 USD/OMR 1yr fwd 6.15 -18.00 -59.00 WTI 91.64 0.70 46.96 USD/QAR 1yr fwd 3.16 1563.16 -92.11 Gold 4,028 0.71 1.90 USD/SAR 1yr fwd 81.31 0.42 -76.93 Copper 13,595 -0.02 13.95 USD/AED 1yr fwd -23.50 -2.17 37.40 Aluminium 3,188 1.40 12.30 USD/EGP 1yr fwd 20.14 -1.79 -14.35 EU natural gas 4,028 0.71 1.90 USD/TRY 1yr fwd 40.30 -0.26 -10.85 US natural gas 62.55 1.77 121.13 USD/ILS 1yr fwd -444.00 -0.14 -216.24 Iron ore 98.15 -0.25 -11.28 Coal 227.00 0.19 2.70 Commodities (BCOM) 706.13 0.01 19.32 Energy (BCOMEN) 460.39 0.10 40.28 Base metals (BCOMIN) 174.46 0.32 11.21 Precious metals (BCOMPR) 1,258.09 0.34 1.09 Agriculture (BCOMAG) 4,028 0.71 1.90

来源:彭博,MUFG研究;* G利差 = 相对于相应货币主权曲线的插值债券利差

第 4 页

4 12 八月 2026 免责声明

MUFG Bank, Ltd.(“MUFG Bank”)是一家在日本注册成立的有限责任股份公司,并在东京法务局注册(公司编号:0100-01- 008846)。MUFG Bank的总部位于日本东京都千代田区丸之内1丁目4番-5号,邮编100-8388,。

MUFG Bank伦敦分行在英国公司注册处注册为英国机构(注册编号:BR002013)。MUFG Bank由日本金融厅授权并监管。MUFG Bank伦敦分行由审慎监管局授权(FCA/PRA编号:139189),并受金融行为监管局的监管以及审慎监管局的有限监管。有关MUFG Bank伦敦分行受审慎监管局监管范围的详细信息,可应要求提供。

MUFG Bank迪拜国际金融中心分行受迪拜金融服务管理局(DFSA)监管(牌照号:F000470),注册地址为阿联酋迪拜国际金融中心Gate大楼东翼3,层,邮箱506614,。

机构免责声明
This Presentation has been prepared by MUFG Bank. This Presentation is intended for distribution to a “professional client” or “eligible counterparty” or Market counterparty" or "Business Customer" but it is not intended for a “retail client” within the me aning of the DFSA or QFCRA rules and should not be distributed to retail clients. This Presentation has been prepared for information purposes only, should not be construed as investment research and for the avoidance of doubt, nothing express or implied in this Presentation constitutes any commitment by MUFG Bank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates to arrange and/or provide any party with any services, facility and/or financing. This Presentation does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, investment advice or a personal recommendation and should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement. MUFG Bank retains copyright to this Presentation, and no part of this Presentation may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written permission of MUFG Bank. MUFG Bank and its subsidiaries and affiliates accept no liability whatsoever to any third parties resulting from any unauthorised distribution. MUFG Bank and its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors and employees accept no liability whatsoever for any reliance on the information contained in the Presentation. This Presentation is based on information from sources deemed by MUFG Bank to be correct and reliable but have not been independently verified. MUFG Bank does not make any guarantee, representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, reliability, completeness, adequacy or appropriateness of any information or comments contained in this presentation. The views contained in this Presentation (including any statements and forecasts) are solely those of MUFG Bank and are subject to change without notice. This presentation is not intended to forecast or predict future events. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. MUFG Bank is under no obligation to correct any inaccuracies in the Presentation or update the information contained therein. The provision of the service described in this Presentation is or will be subject to an agreement constituting terms of busin ess (“the Agreement”). In the event of a conflict between information in this Presentation and the Agreement, the latter shall prevail. Details on how MUFG Bank process personal data relating to individuals associated with our clients and vendors are available on the following website at: MUFG EMEA Privacy Notices | MUFG EMEA This Presentation and all claims arising in connection with it are governed by, and to be construed in accordance with English law. CERTIFICATION The author(s) mentioned on the cover of this report hereby certify(ies) (or, where multiple authors are responsible, individually certify with respect to each security that the author covers in this report) that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject company(ies) and its (their) securities, and also certify(ies) that they have not been, are not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing any specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. This report has been prepared by the Global Markets Research, US Rates and Credit Strategy desks within MUFG Bank, Ltd. (“MUBK”), MUFG Securities EMEA plc (“MUSE”) and MUFG Securities Americas Inc (“MUSA”) and may be distributed to you either by MUBK, MUSE or MUSA or by another subsidiary of the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (“MUFG”). LEGAL ENTITIES AND BRANCHES The securities related businesses within MUFG (together referred to in this material as “MUFG Securities”) are: (1) MUFG Securities EMEA plc (“MUSE”), a limited liability company, registered in England (No:1698498) with its registered of fice at Ropemaker Place, 25 Ropemaker Street, London, EC2Y 9AJ. MUSE is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulati on Authority (“PRA”) and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and the PRA (FS Registration Number 124512). In the USA, MUSE is a registered Swap Dealer (“SD”) with the Commodity F utures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). MUSE is also a registered Security -Based Swap Dealer (“SBSD”) with the Securities Exchange Commission (“SEC”). MUSE has a branch office (“MUSE Dubai Branch”) that is registered at Level 3, East Wing, The Gate, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box 506894, Dubai, UAE. MUSE Dubai Branch is authorised to operate in the Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) as a Non-DIFC Entity (Commercial License Number CL1656) and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (Reference Number F002623); (2) MUFG Securities (Europe) N.V. (“MUS(EU)), a public limited company, registered in the Netherlands (chamber of commerce nu mber 71213376) with its registered office at World Trade Center, Tower Two, level 5, Strawinskylaan 1887, 1077 XX Amsterdam. MUS(EU) is authorized by the European Central Bank and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank (“DNB”) and also regulated by the Authoriteit Financiële Markten (“AFM”). MUS(EU) has a branch offic e (MUSE(EU) Paris Branch) registered in France (chamber of commerce number 844285999) with its registered office at 18 rue du Quatre-Septembre, 75002 Paris. MUS(EU) Paris Branch is regulated in France by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution ("ACPR") and the Autorité des marchés financiers ("AMF"); (3) MUFG Securities Americas Inc. (“MUSA”) which is registered in the United States with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) (SEC# 8 -43026; CRD# 19685); (4) MUFG Securities (Canada), Ltd. (“MUS(CAN)”) is an investment dealer registered in Canada with the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”) and in each province and territory of Canada, a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (“CIRO”) ( NRD# 54270), and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (“CIPF”). Customers’ accounts are protected by CIPF within the specified limits; (5) MUFG Securities Asia Limited (“MUS(ASIA)”) which is incorporated in Hong Kong, licensed under the Hong Kong Securities an d Futures Ordinance and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (Central Entity Number AAA889). MUS(ASIA) is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia (ARBN 169 329 453); and (6) MUFG Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (“MUS(ASIA Singapore)”) has a capital markets services licence under the S ecurities and Futures Act in Singapore. (7) MUFG Securities (India) Private Limited (“MUS(INDIA)”) is a registered intermediary under the Securities and Exchange Boa rd of India (Merchant Bankers) Regulations, 1992 having registration number INM000013305.

AI 分析

由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文

多机构观点对比 · WTI

机构 / 研报发布日期方向原文已核目标价时间范围
三菱日联金融集团中东日报2026/08/12看多—near-term
盛宝银行商品周报:黄金企稳,石油供应紧张与增长担忧令市场分化2026/10/16看多—未明确
加拿大丰业银行经济研究全球经济学 · 每日要点2026/10/16看多—未明确
澳大利亚联邦银行伊朗战争:更多石油正在流动,但局势升级的风险正在上升2026/10/15看多—未明确

本页如何生成

本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 MUFG 于 2026/08/12 发布的研报中提取并结构化,用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问,并已在上方完整展示。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正