Tlines 全球机构情报
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中东每日简报

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核心结论 · Tlines 提取

布伦特原油维持在107美元/桶上方,WTI约94美元/桶,美伊谈判僵局令霍尔木兹海峡不确定性持续;沙特已恢复7百万桶/日东西向管道约一半运力,Yanbu港流量至少达350万桶/日,全面恢复或需约六周。卡塔尔能源将LNG不可抗力延长至11月或12月初。美债抛售企稳,金价升破4140美元/盎司,10年期收益率约5.23%,市场定价10月再加息概率约70%。巴林8月通胀持平于3.0%。

机构
三菱日联金融集团
发布时间
2026/09/29
研究主题
Crude Oil (WTI) · Gold · US 10Y Treasury
时间范围
near-term

关键论点

  • 美伊谈判停滞与即期供应紧张支撑油价,尽管沙特管道流量正在恢复。
  • 布伦特即期价差从8月底不足1美元扩大至逾7美元/桶,显示对即期原油需求强劲。
  • 美债收益率企稳支撑金价反弹,但能源驱动通胀与预期中的进一步加息限制涨幅。
  • 卡塔尔LNG不可抗力延长可能使全球LNG供应持续偏紧,并支撑欧洲和亚洲天然气价格至冬季。

关键数字

布伦特原油
107.30美元/桶
WTI
94.29美元/桶
黄金
4128美元/盎司(现货);盘中突破4140美元
美国10年期国债收益率
约5.23%
布伦特即期价差
逾7美元/桶

主要风险

  • 美伊达成协议并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡将缓解供应约束并压制油价。
  • 若通胀顽固促使美联储进一步加息,将令金价承压。
  • 胡塞武装对沙特能源设施和红海航运的袭击仍是威胁。

对应原文证据

  1. Despite the recovery, physical supply remains ti ght, with Brent’s prompt spread widening to more than US D7/b from less than USD 1 at end-August, signalling strong demand for immediate barrels.
  2. Persistent uncertainty over Hormuz, tight prompt supply and constrained refining capacity should continue to support crude and product prices despite improving Saudi export capacity.
  3. Gold edged higher to above USD 4,140/oz as the selloff in US Treasuries stabilised.

上下文:结论为 Tlines 自动提取,并非机构原话;带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。

在原始来源核验 ↗
研报原件

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

Page 1

1 29 九月 2026

中东每日简报

29 九月 2026

大宗商品 / 能源

美伊僵局令市场吃紧,油价上涨。油价走高,布伦特原油突破每桶 USD 107,WTI 原油徘徊在每桶 USD 94 附近,因美伊谈判停滞和实物市场紧张,盖过了沙特供应恢复的影响。据报道,伊朗官员认为在美国中期选举前就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡达成协议的前景有限,而双方均否认有关在制裁和伊朗核计划上展现更大灵活性的报道。与此同时,沙特已恢复其东西向管道约一半的输送能力,在无人机袭击导致该路线于本月早些时候中断后,输油量至少达到 3.5mb/d。尽管有所恢复,实物供应仍然紧张,布伦特原油近月价差从8月底的不到 USD 1 扩大至超过 USD 7/b,表明对即时交割原油的需求强劲。尽管沙特出口能力改善,但霍尔木兹海峡持续的不确定性、近期供应紧张和炼油能力受限,应会继续支撑原油和成品油价格。

美债抛售企稳,黄金反弹。随着美国国债抛售企稳,黄金小幅上涨至 USD 4,140/oz 上方。10 年期美国国债收益率在触及 19 年高点后,维持在 5.23% 附近,尽管对美联储进一步收紧政策的预期仍是重大阻力。9月黄金下跌近 7%,因持续通胀、能源价格高企以及美联储自 2023 年以来的首次加息推高了借贷成本。美伊紧张局势重燃也提振了油价,加剧了通胀风险,市场定价显示美联储10月再加息的可能性约为 70%。注意力现在转向美国PCE通胀和非农就业数据,以寻找政策前景的进一步信号。虽然美债收益率企稳提供了一些近期支撑,但能源驱动的持续通胀和进一步加息的预期继续制约黄金的复苏。

石油市场现货升水扩大

来源:彭博社,三菱日联研究 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

01-1月15-1月29-1月12-2月26-2月12-3月26-3月09-4月23-4月07-5月21-5月04-6月18-6月02-7月16-7月30-7月 13-8月27-8月10-9月24-9月

布伦特近月价差 布伦特 3 个月价差 布伦特 6 个月价差

中东每日简报

EDWARD BELL 研究主管 DIFC 分行 – 迪拜 电话:+971 (4)387 50 33

电子邮件:edward.bell@ae.mufg.jp

SOOJIN KIM 分析师 DIFC 分行 – 迪拜 电话:+971 (4)387 5031 电子邮件:soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp

三菱日联银行有限公司和三菱日联证券有限公司 三菱日联集团成员,全球金融集团

第 2 页

2 29 9月 2026日 中东——信用交易

收盘评论——28 9月 2026日。又一个疲软交易日。利率上升与利差扩大的组合再次导致我们市场的现金调整幅度可观。资金流向方面,早盘非常沉重,ETF/ 实钱/ 本地/ 交易商纷纷试图离场,但午后后半段我们开始看到一些逢低买入/ 空头回补,以及来自ETF的双向交易增多。表现方面,低beta IG主权债收盘扩大4/5bp。ADGB 54s表现落后,收盘-1.5个基点/+6bp,卡塔尔新发36s表现落后,收盘-0.75个基点/+5bp。较高beta也开始感受到压力,阿曼收盘+10/+15bp,长端51s收盘-1.875个基点/+10bp,腹部31s -0.75个基点/+15bp。MOTROC也开始显现一些裂痕,平均收盘+10bp,其中欧元曲线表现落后于美元曲线。(来源:Dominik Roth,信用交易员)

中东——宏观/ 市场

沙特管道流量恢复,卡塔尔延长LNG中断。沙特阿拉伯已恢复其7百万桶/日东西向管道约一半的产能,流量至少达到3.5百万桶/日,并且在9月10日无人机袭击导致运营中断后,红海延布港的原油装载已经恢复。在伊朗冲突期间,这条路线对于允许沙特原油绕过霍尔木兹海峡至关重要,尽管沙特阿美在管道停运期间大幅增加了海湾地区的装运量,帮助推动9月出口升至战争爆发以来最高水平。全面恢复可能仍需约六周,同时胡塞武装袭击继续威胁沙特能源基础设施和红海航运。与此同时,卡塔尔能源已将向亚洲和欧洲客户的LNG交付不可抗力延长至11月或12月初,因霍尔木兹海峡交通仍受限,受损坏的拉斯拉凡综合设施继续以降低的产能运营。卡塔尔已增加了一些通过海峡的装运,但流量仍远低于战争前水平。沙特管道恢复应会改善原油出口灵活性,而卡塔尔持续中断可能使全球LNG供应保持紧张,并在北半球冬季维持欧洲和亚洲天然气价格高企。

巴林通胀维持在3.0%,因食品和交通成本上升。巴林8月整体通胀同比仍为3.0%,与7月持平,此前从2.3%加速,而消费者价格环比上涨0.2%。价格压力仍集中在部分类别,娱乐和文化同比上涨10.1%,食品和非酒精饮料上涨8.1%,交通成本上涨7.8%,指向家庭支出持续承压。然而,这些上涨在很大程度上被其他几个组成部分的通缩所抵消。服装和鞋类价格同比下跌9.4%,而住房、水、电和燃气下降1.1%,医疗、通信和家用电器价格也录得小幅下降。各类别之间的分化表明,潜在价格压力仍不均衡,食品和交通成本高企被住房和零售价格走软所抵消,尽管关键家庭支出类别成本上升,仍有助于整体通胀保持稳定。

日历——数据/ 事件/ 会议

国家 日期和时间 指标/事件 期间 市场预期 前值 市场重要性*

科威特 8/15/2026-9/29/2026 CPI 同比 7月 -- 2.19% !

卡塔尔 8/19/2026-9/29/2026 CPI 同比 7月 -- 2.21% !!

来源:彭博,MUFG研究;* 彭博相关性评分介于“!”、“!!”和“!!!”之间

第 3 页

3 29 September 2026 E

MARKET INDICATORS

Stock markets Index Chg, % Sovereign bonds Yields, % G-S*, bp Chg, bp Coup, % Daily YTD Daily Daily YTD Regional Short-term bonds (1-2 years) MSCI GCC 740 -0.45 0.73 Bahrain 2028 8.401 344.59 -0.03 3.13 7.000 Bahrain 1,906 0.00 -7.78 Kuwait 2027 4.949 55.62 -0.02 0.82 3.500 Kuwait 10,381 -1.49 19.47 Oman 2027 5.627 103.07 -0.02 1.35 6.750 Oman 7,590 0.62 29.38 Qatar 2028 5.222 43.83 -0.01 1.40 4.500 Qatar 9,410 -0.46 -12.57 KSA 2027 3.742 63.01 -0.03 1.26 0.750 Saudi Arabia 10,579 -0.96 0.84 UAE 2027 4.977 39.79 0.00 1.32 3.125 Dubai 5,998 0.30 -0.81 Egypt 2027 6.541 197.39 0.00 0.47 5.800 Abu Dhabi 10,159 -0.40 1.67 Turkey 2027 6.334 177.28 0.00 1.37 8.600 Egypt 52,469 -1.06 25.44 Israel 2027 3.885 112.76 -0.01 0.90 1.500 Israel 4,221 -0.49 16.24 Jordan 2027 5.838 156.85 0.02 0.22 5.750 Turkey 12,593 -2.38 11.82 Jordan 207 1.16 12.79 Medium-term bonds (3-5 years) Bahrain 2030 8.333 327.49 -0.01 2.90 7.375 Oman 2030 5.708 64.90 0.01 1.55 4.875 International Qatar 2030 5.549 48.90 -0.01 1.72 9.750 MSCI World 4,923 -0.71 11.12 KSA 2030 5.699 65.19 0.01 1.50 4.750 MSCI EM 1,710 -1.31 21.74 UAE 2030 5.524 46.80 -0.01 1.73 3.125 CSI 300 4,342 0.03 -6.22 Egypt 2030 7.830 275.84 -0.01 0.14 7.625 DAX 25,374 -0.13 3.61 Turkey 2030 7.162 209.94 -0.01 1.28 9.125 DJIA 51,482 -0.67 7.11 Israel 2030 5.815 75.32 0.01 1.31 2.750 EURO STOXX 50 6,301 -0.02 8.80 Jordan 2030 6.487 142.51 0.01 0.63 5.850 FTSE 100 Index 10,685 -0.10 7.59 Nikkei 225 64,936 -1.43 29.00 Long-term bonds (6+ years) S&P 500 7,684 -0.77 12.24 Bahrain 2035 8.439 322.11 0.00 -0.14 7.750 Qatar 2035 5.716 50.14 0.00 -0.11 4.875 3m interbank rates % Chg, bp KSA 2035 5.894 71.13 0.00 -0.08 5.000 Daily YTD UAE 2034 5.636 44.54 0.00 -0.09 5.000 Bahrain 5.47 0.00 9.85 Turkey 2035 7.780 256.95 -0.01 -0.08 6.500 Kuwait 3.69 0.00 3.51 Israel 2037 6.068 85.58 0.00 -0.07 5.625 UAE 4.31 -0.91 23.93 Qatar 4.46 1.89 12.14 International bonds (10 years) Saudi Arabia 5.21 2.78 7.21 US Treasury 5.256 --- 0.02 1.12 4.625 Turkey 16.01 0.00 0.00 German Bund 3.642 --- 0.00 0.94 3.000 SOFR 4.08 0.02 11.60 UK Gilt 5.418 --- 0.05 0.72 4.875 Japan Government Bond 3.089 --- 0.01 1.45 2.700 Exchange rates Rate Chg, % Daily YTD Commodities USD Chg, % USD/BHD 1yr fwd 167.39 -0.82 -10.31 Daily YTD USD/KWD 1yr fwd -106.94 -4.74 45.16 Brent 107.30 1.92 78.27 USD/OMR 1yr fwd 10.01 25.13 -33.27 WTI 94.29 1.83 65.65 USD/QAR 1yr fwd -4.30 -6.17 -110.74 Gold 4,128 0.31 -4.42 USD/SAR 1yr fwd 76.22 1.63 -78.37 Copper 14,413 -1.43 16.02 USD/AED 1yr fwd -15.30 6.99 59.24 Aluminium 3,252 -0.50 8.55 USD/EGP 1yr fwd 20.08 0.20 -14.09 EU natural gas 4,128 0.31 -4.42 USD/TRY 1yr fwd 40.05 -0.09 -10.30 US natural gas 72.44 -1.36 167.12 USD/ILS 1yr fwd -664.52 -0.67 -373.30 Iron ore 96.60 -0.21 -9.88 Coal 279.50 0.54 31.87 Commodities (BCOM) 729.41 -1.30 24.73 Energy (BCOMEN) 480.06 -0.62 55.17 Base metals (BCOMIN) 178.64 -0.03 9.34 Precious metals (BCOMPR) 1,287.17 -3.76 -4.98 Agriculture (BCOMAG) 4,128 0.31 -4.42

Source: Bloomberg, MUFG Research; * G-spread = interpolated bond spread to sovereign curve of matching currency

第 4 页

4 29 9月 2026日 免责声明

MUFG Bank, Ltd.(“MUFG Bank”)是一家在日本注册成立的有限责任公司,并在东京法务局登记(公司编号:0100-01- 008846)。MUFG Bank总部位于日本东京千代田区丸之内1丁目4 -5,邮编100-8388,。

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AI 分析

由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文

多机构观点对比 · WTI

机构 / 研报发布日期方向原文已核目标价时间范围
三菱日联金融集团中东每日简报2026/09/29看多—near-term
盛宝银行商品周报:黄金企稳,石油供应紧张与增长担忧令市场分化2026/10/16看多—未明确
加拿大丰业银行经济研究全球经济学 · 每日要点2026/10/16看多—未明确
澳大利亚联邦银行伊朗战争:更多石油正在流动,但局势升级的风险正在上升2026/10/15看多—未明确

本页如何生成

本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 MUFG 于 2026/09/29 发布的研报中提取并结构化,用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问,并已在上方完整展示。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正