日元月报2610

关键论点

• 美方认为日元被大幅低估，并将汇率政策提升至领导人层面，与对华汇率政策及更广泛贸易战略挂钩。
• 日本央行将政策利率上调至1.25%，12月被视为最可能的下次加息时点。
• 对美联储进一步加息的预期、日美扩张性财政政策以及日本贸易和数字赤字仍是日元走弱来源。
• 日元持续升值需要日本央行继续加息并恢复对财政纪律的信心。

对应原文证据

1. ) Summary The US has elevated currency policy to a leader -level issue after the yen continued to weaken despite coordinated intervention at the end of July, with Washington viewing the yen as substantially undervalued.
2. Against this backdrop, the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25%, with December now seen as the most likely timing for the next hike.
3. However, the USD/JPY rising above 160 would likely prompt stronger warnings from the Japanese and US authorities and raise the prospect of further coordinated intervention, while the 200 -day moving average should also limit upside.