外汇每日快照：欧元区PMI显示活动保持韧性，价格压力扩大MUFG宏观

关键论点

• 欧元区9月综合PMI为53.1，创41个月新高，较共识预期的小幅恶化构成显著上行意外。
• 服务业产出价格指标升至56.0，为2024年2月以来最高，调查证据显示能源价格压力可能正向国内经济扩散。
• MUFG预计欧洲央行将把存款利率从2.50%上调至3.00%，并预测10月加息，但时机最终取决于能源市场发展。
• MUFG跟踪的欧元区（不含爱尔兰）三季度GDP环比增速约为0.2%，但PMI与约0.4%的更强增长相符；9月消费者信心走弱。

对应原文证据

1. European Macro │23 September 2026 FX Daily Snapshot Euro area PMI shows resilient activity and broadening price pressures 23 September 2026 The euro area PMI comfortably beat expectations in September, pointing to continued resilience in the face of higher energy prices. · September 2026
2. All told, today ’s release bolsters the hawkish case for further tightening and is consistent with our view that the deposit rate will be lifted from the current 2.50% to 3.00%.
3. A story of ongoing resilience The euro area composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September, a 41-month high, with both manufacturing and services remaining comfortably in expansion territory.