区域外汇环境更趋分化 · 亚洲外汇周报

关键论点

• 市场普遍预期美联储按兵不动，但美债收益率高企叠加日本央行可能加息25个基点，意味着全球流动性收紧。
• 日本央行加息将减少全球最廉价融资来源之一，可能引发日元融资套利交易平仓。
• 外部平衡强劲的亚洲货币应比存在贸易逆差的货币更具韧性。
• 油价突破100美元/桶且10年期美债收益率接近5%，收紧区域金融条件，通胀风险持续存在。

对应原文证据

1. 1 Asia FX Weekly US CPI A more differentiated regional FX environment We expect next week’s FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment, particularly at a time of higher crude oil prices. · next week
2. While the Fed is widely expected to stay on hold, the combination of elevated US yields and a potential 25bps BOJ rate hike imply a tightening of global liquidity.
3. In particular, a BOJ tightening would reduce one of the world’s cheapest funding sources and raises the risk of an unwinding of yen-funded carry trades.