宏观 · 聚焦日本 日本央行前瞻：9月之后，实体经济决定进一步加息的步伐

关键论点

• 9月18日加息25个基点至1.25%是基准情形，因董事会若暂停将显得容忍日元疲软。
• 预计2027年初通胀超过3%，峰值接近3.5%，受3-3.5%的工资增长和三年高位的生产者价格推动。
• 后续加息预计在2027年底达到2.00%的平台，但步伐将由通胀、活动和金融稳定决定。
• 2%的政策利率将使实际利率从约-1%升至零，即宽松结束之处。

对应原文证据

1. BoJ preview: after September, the real economy decides the pace of further hikes We expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September, three months after the June hike - the shortest interval of this cycle.
2. Looking forward, we see a gradual path for the current monetary policy cycle, with an endpoint of rates at 2% by end-2027. · 2027
3. Takata dissented in July in favour of a hike, Governor Ueda promised to weigh upside price risks from the next meeting, and the first joint US-Japan yen purchase since 1998 came with open pressure from Washington for higher rates.