利率火花：期限溢价可独立于央行上升

关键论点

• 加息25个基点几乎已被完全定价；美联储必须行动，否则需解释，而加息只是兑现沃什在很大程度上制造的定价。
• 50个基点并非ING预测，但可能作为“保险式加息”被引导为一次性行动，或更有利于掌控长端。
• 加息50个基点可能安抚也可能惊吓长端，验证10年期收益率100个基点的升幅，并引发后续抛售。
• 在有利环境下期限溢价可继续上升，受30年期日本国债收益率、欧元互换流动性及美国赤字担忧推动；ING对2027年美国更为悲观。

对应原文证据

1. Now that would be quite the statement Close your ears Mr President, but 50bp might be the right move, as it could be more fitting with how Chair Warsh might like to pursue policy.
2. This is why this meeting is so intriguing A 50bp rate hike by the Federal Reserve could be the right move (Mr President), although we think it will be 25bp instead - the market discount We think a 25bp hike.
3. Chair Warsh would be delivering on the market discount, one that he, to a significant extent, manufactured through guidance (from his Jackson Hole speech).