利率火花：英国国债过于分心，无暇顾及好消息

关键论点

• 首相伯纳姆的养老金三重锁定改革及缺乏通胀性政策，降低了工党施加物价上行压力的尾部风险。
• 美国利率与能源价格仍是主导因素，若其进一步上升，英镑利率也将被推高。
• 10年期金边债券收益率5.4%具吸引力，但结构性降至4.5%的走势可能要到2027年中期才会获得动力。
• 欧元区通胀数据及美国PCE价格指数是近期市场方向的关键，核心PCE月环比预期为0.3%。

对应原文证据

1. We think a 5.4% yield for the 10yr gilt is attractive, but much will depend on the global macro environment.
2. Energy prices and US rates could still move higher in the near term, which means sterling rates will be dragged higher too. · near-term
3. From a structural perspective, we think the 10yr gilt yield should settle closer to 4.5%, but the move lower will likely only gain traction by mid-2027. · 2027