利率火花：风险情绪分化

关键论点

• 风险情绪转向更乐观，法国利差收窄、标普500创新高、布伦特油价一度跌破100美元，但宏观力量仍相互对立且承压。
• 勒庞的财政整顿计划获得市场欢迎，10年期法国国债与德国国债利差收窄近10个基点至125个基点附近，但该计划依赖乐观假设且难以落实。
• 持续的选举不确定性和头条风险可能令投资者回避法国债务，且其计划可能招致对手更多攻击。
• 全国学生骚乱及工会呼吁11月初全国罢工，表明任何支出约束都将面临公众阻力，限制利差持久收窄。

对应原文证据

1. On the positive side in the near term, it could also signal less resistance to the government’s current proposal for 2027, which targets a deficit of 5% rather than the 3.7% that Le Pen’s plan envisages. · 2027
2. On balance, we still see risks tilted towards a re-widening of spreads as we head closer to the elections and expect the spread to remain in the 125-150bp range for now rather than move lastingly lower.
3. However, we will see a few European Central Bank officials speaking, such as Piero Cipollone and Boris Vujcic, and in the US, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the September FOMC meeting.