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随着通胀保持温和,英国央行将与美联储分道扬镳

可引用研究简报

核心结论 · Tlines 提取

ING研究挑战市场对英国央行三次加息的预期,认为疲弱的就业市场和降温的核心通胀将反而导致至少一次降息,可能发生在2027年4月。尽管上半年增长稳健,但ING预测下半年增长将因季节性因素、增长集中和建筑业疲软而减弱。能源密集型通胀已下降,支持鸽派转向。

机构
荷兰国际集团智库
发布时间
2026/09/03
研究主题
Monetary policy · UK interest rates · Inflation
时间范围
current

关键论点

  • 与美联储主席沃什的观点不同,英国利率仍具有限制性。
  • 私营部门工资增长为2.8%,创下新低,经构成效应调整后,已达到与2%通胀目标一致的3.25%水平。
  • 由于季节性调整挑战和增长集中在少数行业,下半年增长可能放缓。
  • 能源密集型通胀已下降,核心服务通胀也在回落。
  • 除非能源价格持续大幅飙升,否则预计2027年4月将降息。
  • 10月预算将是政策路径的关键决定因素。

关键数字

私营部门工资增长
2.8%
与2%通胀目标一致的工资增长
3.25%
英国年增长率
1.1%
私人房屋建筑低于疫情前水平
20%
消费者服务就业年化下降率
>3%

主要风险

  • 能源价格持续大幅飙升可能阻止降息。
  • 10月预算可能改变财政立场并影响英国央行决策。
  • 如果增长比预期更具韧性,英国央行可能维持利率不变。
  • 季节性调整问题可能扭曲增长数据,导致政策失误。

对应原文证据

  1. Warsh’s argument that the level of US interest rates is no longer restrictive is much harder to make in Britain. · current
  2. The result is that private sector wage growth, at 2.8%, is hitting new lows. And even after adjusting for so-called ‘compositional effects’ in the data, it has finally reached the 3.25% level which the BoE told us earlier this year is consistent with a 2% inflation target in the medium term. · current
  3. growth is very concentrated. This isn’t new, admittedly, but three sectors – IT, health/social care and transport – are contributing half of the UK’s 1.1% annual growth rate, despite only making up 17% of economic output. · current

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完整中文译文

Page 1

文章 | 3年2026月1日 THINK 经济与金融分析

文章 | 3年2026月 英国

随着通胀保持温和,英国央行将与美联储分道扬镳

与市场定价相反,我们认为,脆弱的就业市场和不断降温的核心通胀应该有助于英国央行在2027年开启降息周期

市场预计英国央行将加息三次,我们认为更有可能至少降息一次

英国不像美国——利率仍然具有限制性

美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上的鹰派言论,加上近期能源价格上涨,意味着市场现在预计英国央行在未来12个月内将加息三次。

我们不同意这种观点;我们认为,届时英国央行至少已经降息一次。沃什关于美国利率水平不再具有限制性的论点,在英国很难成立。

以就业市场为例。好消息是,除酒店和零售业外,私营部门的招聘不再下降,这是根据薪资数据得出的。坏消息是,招聘调查总体仍显示员工人数将进一步减少。而在消费服务领域,薪资数据按年率计算下降幅度超过3%,而且这种下降速度,如果说有变化的话,仍在恶化。

Page 2

THINK 经济与金融分析

文章 | 3年2026月2日 其结果是,私营部门工资增长率(目前为2.8%)创下新低。即使在调整了数据中所谓的“构成效应”之后,它终于达到了英国央行今年早些时候告诉我们与中期2%通胀目标相符的3.25%水平。前瞻性调查并未表明即将出现好转。

“能源密集型”通胀并未回升

来源:Macrobond、ING

基于英国国家统计局(ONS)的能源强度数据。由ING计算

随着年关临近,增长可能会放缓

所有这些都很难与上半年稳健的增长数据相协调。部分原因仅仅是通胀冲击没有原本可能那么严重。但这里有三个更广泛的问题。

首先,自2022,年以来,上半年增长一直明显强于下半年——而今年月度GDP的走势在很大程度上遵循了这一熟悉的路径。我们和其他许多人一样,怀疑这是由于季节性调整的挑战。而这表明下半年增长将走弱。

其次,增长非常集中。不可否认,这并不新鲜,但三个行业——信息技术、医疗/社会护理和运输——贡献了英国1.1%年度增长率的一半,尽管它们仅占经济产出的17%。上半年的强劲资本支出初步表明,英国正受益于当前席卷美国的人工智能数据中心热潮的缩小版。

第三,建筑业一直非常疲软。私人住宅建设仍比新冠疫情前水平低20%%,这很好地体现了紧缩货币政策对利率敏感行业的影响。

再来看通胀。根据我们的计算,“能源密集型”通胀今年迄今实际上已经下降,即使计入去年水和道路税上调的影响。还有

第 3 页

THINK Economic and financial analysis

Article | 3 September 2026 3 lags involved, admittedly. But the fact that food inflation in particular has been falling should be welcome news for the BoE hawks. The Bank’s favoured measure of “core services” inflation is also down so far this year.

Barring a sustained and material spike in energy prices, we think by early next year the BoE will be comfortable pivoting in a more dovish direction. A lot will depend on October’s budget. But for now, we’re pencilling in a rate cut for April 2027.

Author

James Smith Developed Markets Economist, UK james.smith@ing.com

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本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 ING THINK 于 2026/09/03 发布的研报中提取并结构化,用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问,并已在上方完整展示。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正