美国财政部长贝森特可能如何试图将10年期收益率目标定在4

关键论点

• 长期利率上升主要反映印钞、被动加息和更高实际利率，而非美国财政相关的抛售潮。
• 财政部回购和减少长端发行可收窄互换利差；近期回购增加已使长端利差收紧。
• 当前10年期SOFR利率4.8%约高出50个基点，因市场对美联储加息的预期过于激进。
• 极端行动可能使10年期收益率降至4%，但ING不建议且认为当前无必要，因互换利差并未失控。

对应原文证据

1. If we did, and it was severe, the US Treasury could feel forced to take more extreme action.
2. We examine how that might look US Treasury Secretary Bessent has options to lower the yield on 10yr Treasuries, including bigger buybacks and cancelling long-end auctions A quick snapshot of what's to come Here we examine a scenario where the US Treasury chooses to take material action on the back end of the curve, targeting lower yields.
3. That said, if the US Treasury were to choose to take action, say through bigger buybacks and/or cancelled 20yr auctions, this should be expected to do no more than richen Treasuries versus swaps.