美国就业增长降温支持美联储10月暂停加息

关键论点

• 9月就业报告在三个关键指标上均不及预期：非农就业、失业率和工资增长。
• 美联储领导层言论和温和通胀表明没有加息紧迫性，10月按兵不动可能性大。
• 劳动力市场松弛程度上升，失业人数与职位空缺接近平衡，预示工资通胀将进一步降温。
• ING认为市场对年内3-4次加息的定价过于激进。

对应原文证据

1. It chimes with the latest comments from Federal Reserve big hitters John Williams (NY Fed president) and Philip Jefferson (Vice Chair), suggesting they may need more time/no urgency to hike rates.
2. As such, the Fed leadership is clearly leaning in the direction of an October hold, meaning it will require a hot September CPI print (due 14 October) to make the meeting interesting.
3. Unsurprisingly, this demand-supply swing lower is depressing wage growth, with the low quits rate suggesting further downside risks to wage growth relative to the current, already low, 3% rate.