亚洲本周前瞻：日本央行利率决议、中国五中全会、台湾与韩国数据THINK 经济与金融分析

关键论点

• 尽管通胀偏高，日本央行预计维持1.25%不变，以评估上月25个基点的加息影响。
• 基准情形为2027年1月和4月各加息25个基点，政策利率升至1.75%。
• 五中全会被定调为以政治为主，市场将关注公报及9月工业企业利润是否扭转8月的放缓。
• 韩国增长放缓但仍印证央行对经济韧性的判断，半导体需求提供支撑。

对应原文证据

1. While inflation remains elevated, policymakers may prefer more time to monitor the economy, particularly as the government continues to support domestic demand.
2. Market consensus is for headline inflation to remain unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation eases slightly to 2.6%.
3. Retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3% YoY, while industrial production rebounds by 1.3% month-on-month following August’s sharp decline.