Asia week ahead: BoJ rate call, China’s Fifth Plenum, data on Taiwan and Korea · THINK Economic and financial analysis
中文标题
亚洲本周前瞻：日本央行利率决议、中国五中全会、台湾与韩国数据 · THINK 经济与金融分析
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING expects the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.25% on Friday, with two further 25bp hikes pencilled in for January and April 2027 to reach 1.75%. China's Fifth Plenum runs 26-29 October and may be more political than economic. ING forecasts Taiwan third-quarter GDP growth of 11.4% year-on-year, while consensus sees South Korean growth easing to 3.2% from 3.7%.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 10/23/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Semiconductors
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- The BoJ is expected to hold at 1.25% to assess last month's 25bp hike, despite elevated inflation.
- ING's base case adds 25bp hikes in January and April 2027, lifting the rate to 1.75%.
- China's Fifth Plenum is framed as mainly political; markets will watch the communiqué and September industrial profits for a turn from August's slowdown.
- South Korean growth moderation still supports the Bank of Korea's resilient-growth view, aided by semiconductor demand.
Key numbers
- BoJ policy rate (expected hold)
- 1.25%
- BoJ rate in ING base case by April 2027
- 1.75%
- Taiwan Q3 GDP growth forecast (YoY)
- 11.4%
- South Korea Q3 GDP growth consensus (YoY)
- 3.2%, down from 3.7%
- Tokyo headline inflation consensus (YoY)
- 2.7%
Main risks
- Inflation staying elevated could force the BoJ to hike earlier than the January/April 2027 base case.
- The Fifth Plenum may yield no clear economic signal, limiting market read-through.
- A weaker South Korean GDP print would challenge the Bank of Korea's resilient-growth stance.
Corresponding source evidence
While inflation remains elevated, policymakers may prefer more time to monitor the economy, particularly as the government continues to support domestic demand.
Market consensus is for headline inflation to remain unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation eases slightly to 2.6%.
Retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3% YoY, while industrial production rebounds by 1.3% month-on-month following August’s sharp decline.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/23/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/23/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction