Danske Bank / Nordic Outlook 1 3 September 2026 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 3 of this report. US
Parentheses are the old projections (from June 2026) *End of period Source: Danske Bank, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed GDP Growth
Inflation
Unemployment
Fed Funds* 2.1%
2.7%
4.3%
3.75% 2025
2.1% (2.0%)
3.2% (3.5%)
4.3% (4.3%)
4.00% (4.00%) Forecast 2026
1.8% (1.8%)
2.5% (2.8%)
4.2% (4.2%)
4.25% (4.25%) 2027
The US economy continues to perform well despite headwinds from tariffs, high energy costs and lower labour supply. Growth has slightly exceeded our expectations in 2026, so we lift our GDP forecast for 2026 to 2.1%, in line with consensus, and stick to our previous call of 1.8% GDP growth in 2027.
Real GDP fell short of our expectations at just 0.4% q/q in Q2. However, final sales to private domestic purchasers, measured as household consumption and private fixed investments, grew at a solid pace of 1.0% q/q. High import growth and inventory drawdowns masked the strong underlying growth. This means that high import growth and inventory drawdowns masked strong underlying growth. Tariff refunds also provided a temporary boost to growth over summer, see RtM USD - Tariff deadline looms, but macro impact eases, 14 July.
Private consumption growth picked up in Q2. Consumers continue to defy rising energy costs by cutting the savings rate which hovers around its lowest level since the post-COVID inflation boom in 2022 and before that, 2005-07. That said,
Defying growing headwinds
- 尽管面临越来越多的阻力，经济动能近期有所回升。高进口和库存减少掩盖了消费和投资方面强劲的内在增长。
- 我们将2026年GDP增长预测小幅上调至2.1%，此前为2.0%，并将2027年预测维持在1.8%。今年上半年增长略超预期。消费面临越来越多的阻力，因为劳动力供应减少限制了未来实际工资总额增长的潜力。未来增长将越来越依赖固定投资，尤其是与AI相关的投资。
- 通胀回落幅度略超预期，但我们认为其影响范围正在扩大。我们将2026年整体通胀预测下调至3.2%（此前为3.5%），并将2027年预测下调至2.5%（此前为2.8%）。我们预测2026,年核心通胀为2.6%，到2027年将升至2.9%。
- 我们维持对美联储将在12月和3月两次加息的预测。我们仍然认为通胀压力持续和劳动力市场收紧的风险较高。