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固定收益 · 2026 意大利政府债券发行

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2026 意大利政府债券发行 固定收益 请务必阅读本出版物末尾的重要披露。20 2 6 发行(十亿欧元) 政府债务到期时间表 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 合计 BOT(*) 17.5 8.8 19.2 7.7 18.0 9.4 25.0 8.8 19.6 9.9 22.3 16.8 183 BTP短期 13.5 - - - - - - 13.2 - - - - 27 CCTeu - - - 12.7 - - - - - - - - 13 BTP 15.1 18.5 20.2 28.8 - 19.9 17.2 16.6 15.5 - 12.4 19.8 184 BTP通胀挂钩 - - - - 18.6 - - - 17.1 - - - 36 欧洲债券 - 2.5 0.3 - 0.2 - - - - - - - 3 总计 46 30 40 49 37 29 42 39 52 10 35 37 445 (*)BOT赎回基于意大利联合圣保罗银行的预期展期。 总发行量 - 预测(所有数据均按结算日口径) 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 合计 BOT 17.1 13.9 16.6 15.3 18.5 14.8 17.1 13.8 18.0 11.0 19.0 8.5 183 BTP短期 3.9 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.9 2.5 3.0 2.5 - 31 CCTeu - 2.0 2.5 4.0 4.6 3.7 2.2 2.3 2.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 32 BTP 25.2 28.0 30.0 28.0 16.0 31.9 14.5 6.3 22.5 24.5 14.5 11.5 253 其中 3 年期 5.2 4.2 2.0 2.5 3.6 5.2 2.5 - 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 34 5 年期 - 2.8 3.3 3.0 5.2 4.2 3.0 3.0 6.5 11.0 2.5 2.5 47 7 年期 15.0 3.3 18.7 3.8 3.9 13.0 3.5 - 2.5 5.5 3.5 3.0 76 10 年期 - 3.8 4.5 17.0 1.8 4.5 4.0 3.3 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 53 15 年期 - 14.0 1.5 1.8 - - 1.5 - 1.5 - 1.0 - 21 20 年期 5.0 - - - 1.5 - - - 5.0 - 2.0 - 14 30 年期 - - - - - 5.0 - - - 1.5 - 1.5 8 ≥50 年期 - - - - - - - - - - - - - BTP通胀挂钩 2.3 2.0 2.0 3.5 2.9 11.0 3.9 - 2.0 2.0 2.5 - 34 欧洲债券 - - 0.5 2.1 - 0.9 6.8 0.5 - - - - 11 总计 48 48 54 55 45 65 47 27 47 45 42 22 545 注:蓝色阴影单元格表示新基准债券,红色单元格表示新的BTP Italia/futura/Valore,绿色阴影单元格表示新的或增发的绿色BTP。 净发行量 - 预测 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 合计 BOT -0.5 5.1 -2.5 7.6 0.5 5.5 -7.9 5.0 -1.6 1.1 -3.3 -8.3 1 BTP短期 -9.6 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 -9.3 2.5 3.0 2.5 - 5 CCTeu - 2.0 2.5 -8.7 4.6 3.7 2.2 2.3 2.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 20 BTP 10.1 9.5 9.8 -0.8 16.0 12.0 -2.7 -10.3 7.0 24.5 2.1 -8.3 69 BTP通胀挂钩 2.3 2.0 2.0 3.5 -15.8 11.0 3.9 - -15.1 2.0 2.5 - -2 欧洲债券 - -2.5 0.2 2.1 -0.2 0.9 6.8 0.5 - - - - 8 总计 2 19 14 6 8 36 5 -12 -5 35 7 -15 100 资料来源:意大利联合圣保罗银行,意大利经济与财政部 宏观经济分析 意大利联合圣保罗银行 - 研究部 Chiara Manenti 利率、外汇与大宗商品主管 每周报告 28 八月 2026 – 11:38 首次传播日期和时间 28 八月 2026 – 11:38 撰写日期和时间

2026 意大利政府债券发行 28 8月 2026 由意大利联合圣保罗银行研究部编制 20 2 6 按拍卖日期排程(十亿欧元) 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 3M/灵活 - - - 2.50 2.50 1.65 - - 1.63 BOTs 6M 8.25 2.55 8.63 2.01 - 7.50 4.69 12M 8.80 9.35 8.00 8.25 9.35 - 8.50 BTP短期 - 3.90 - 2.50 - 2.00 - 2.50 - 3.00 - 3.00 CCTeu - 2.00 - 2.50 - 4.03 - 4.55 - 3.74 - 2.17 BTP总额 25.20 22.80 7.50 26.02 6.00 8.00 22.00 10.50 9.00 11.58 32.20 9.01 其中 3 年期 5.20 - 4.20 - 2.00 - 2.50 - 3.60 - 5.20 - 5 年期 - 2.75 - 3.30 - 3.00 - 5.20 - 4.20 - 3.00 7 年期 15.00 - 3.30 16.22 2.50 - 3.75 - 3.90 - 13.00 - 10 年期 - 3.75 - 4.50 - 3.00 14.00 1.80 - 4.50 - 4.00 15 年期 - 14.00 - - 1.50 - 1.75 - - - - - 20 年期 5.00 - - - - - - - 1.50 - - - 30 年期 - - - - - - - - - - 5.00 - 50 年期 - - - - - - - - - - - - BTP通胀挂钩 - 2.30 - 2.00 - 2.00 - 3.50 - 2.88 9.00 2.01 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 月中 月底 3M/灵活 - 2.20 - - - - - - - - - - BOTs 6M 8.25 2.75 10.00 2.50 11.00 - 12M 8.80 8.80 8.00 8.50 8.00 8.50 BTP短期 - 2.50 - 3.90 - 2.50 - 3.00 - 2.50 - - CCTs - 2.30 - 2.00 - 4.00 - 3.00 - 2.00 - BTPs总额 7.50 10.19 - 7.50 15.00 9.00 17.50 7.50 9.00 7.50 6.50 2.00 其中 3 年期 2.50 - - - 2.00 - 2.50 - 2.50 - 2.00 - 5 年期 - 3.00 - 2.50 4.00 3.00 8.00 2.50 - 2.50 - - 7 年期 3.50 - - - 2.50 - 5.50 - 3.50 - 3.00 - 10 年期 - 3.32 - 5.00 - 4.00 - 3.00 - 2.50 - - 15 年期 1.50 - - - 1.50 - - - 1.00 - - - 20 年期 - - - - 5.00 - - - 2.00 - - - 30 年期 - - - - - - 1.50 - - - 1.50 - 50 年期 - - - - - - - - - - - - BTP通胀挂钩 - 3.88 - - - 2.00 - 2.00 - 2.50 - 2.00 十月 十一月 十二月 七月 五月 六月 八月 九月 一月 二月 三月 四月 资料来源:意大利央行、意大利经济和财政部、意大利联合圣保罗银行

2026 意大利政府债券发行 28 八月 2026 由 Intesa Sanpaolo SpA 研究部门编制 202 6 发行量(十亿欧元,ISP 预测) 202 5 发行量(十亿欧元,ISP 预测) 1 第一季度 2 第二季度 3 第三季度 4 第四季度 合计 赎回 116 115 133 81 445 短期国债 45 35 53 49 183 短期 BTP 14 0 13 0 27 CCTeu 0 13 0 0 13 BTP 54 49 49 32 184 通胀挂钩 BTP 0 19 17 0 36 欧元债券 3 0 0 0 3 总发行量 150 166 121 108 545 短期国债 48 49 49 39 183 短期 BTP 8 9 9 6 31 CCTeu 5 12 6 9 32 BTP 83 76 43 51 253 通胀挂钩 BTP 6 17 6 5 34 欧元债券 1 3 7 0 11 净发行量 35 50 -12 27 100 短期国债 2 14 -5 -11 1 短期 BTP -5 9 -4 6 5 CCTeu 5 0 6 9 20 BTP 29 27 -6 18 69 通胀挂钩 BTP 6 -1 -11 5 -2 欧元债券 -2 3 7 0 8 1 第一季度 2 第二季度 3 第三季度 4 第四季度 合计 赎回 114 111 106 77 408 短期国债 48 40 46 37 171 短期 BTP 15 0 16 0 30 CCTeu 10 16 14 0 40 BTP 41 37 30 40 148 通胀挂钩 BTP 0 18 0 0 18 欧元债券 0 0 0 0 0 总发行量 157 157 113 120 547 短期国债 46 42 42 39 169 短期 BTP 11 10 8 5 34 CCTeu 6 9 6 8 30 BTP 85 75 51 63 275 通胀挂钩 BTP 6 18 4 5 33 欧元债券 2 2 1 1 6 净发行量 43 46 8 43 139 短期国债 -2 2 -4 2 -2 短期 BTP -4 10 -7 5 4 CCTeu -4 -7 -8 8 -11 BTP 44 38 21 23 127 通胀挂钩 BTP 6 0 4 5 15 欧元债券 2 2 1 1 6 资料来源:意大利央行、意大利经济和财政部、Intesa Sanpaolo 资料来源:意大利央行、意大利经济和财政部、Intesa Sanpaolo 国家部门借款需求及其融资(十亿欧元) 国家部门净发行量 欧盟资金 赤字使用 短期国债 短期 BTP CCT BTP 意大利 合计及现金 账户与偿债基金(+ 赤字 / - 盈余) BTP 回购 其他 余额 存款 基金 2025 126 -2 4 -11 141 6 139 28 -42 51 0 2026 F 135 1 5 20 67 8 100 28 7 41 0 一月 10 0 -10 0 12 0 2 17 -9 60 0 二月 14 5 3 2 12 -3 19 7 -12 72 0 三月 33 -3 2 3 12 0 14 9 10 62 0 四月 17 8 3 -9 3 2 6 -8 19 40 0 五月 15 0 3 5 0 0 8 17 -10 50 3 六月 14 5 3 4 23 1 36 -13 -9 60 3 七月 -13 -8 3 2 1 7 5 -5 -13 73 3 八月 2 5 -9 2 -10 1 -12 -2 16 57 3 九月 23 -2 3 2 -8 0 -5 -1 29 28 3 十月 18 1 3 4 27 0 35 0 -17 44 0 十一月 13 -3 3 3 5 0 7 14 -8 52 0 十二月 -8 -8 0 2 -8 0 -15 -5 12 41 0 国库账户余额 所有数据均按交割日基础列示。资料来源:意大利央行、意大利经济和财政部、Intesa Sanpaolo。

2026 意大利政府债券发行 28 八月 2026 由联合圣保罗银行研究部编制 总发行量(十亿欧元) 净发行量(十亿欧元) BTP ST CCTeu BTP BTP通胀挂钩 2025 F 34 30 275 33 2026 F 31 32 253 34 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 BOT BTP ST CCTeu BTP BTP通胀挂钩 2025 F -2 4 -11 127 15 2026 F 1 5 20 69 -2 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 总发行量(十亿欧元) 净发行量(十亿欧元) 资料来源:意大利银行、意大利经济与财政部、联合圣保罗银行 国家部门借款需求(累计,十亿欧元) 意大利 - 宏观经济预测 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 F 2027 F 彭博 GDP同比% 0.7 0.9 0.8 调查 CPI同比% 1.7 2.8 2.0 财政余额% -3.0 -3.0 -2.8 国际货币基金组织 GDP同比% 0.5 0.5 0.5 CPI同比% 1.6 2.6 2.4 意大利银行 GDP同比% 0.6 0.5 0.4 意大利 CPI同比% 1.7 3.1 2.0 欧盟委员会 GDP同比% 0.4 0.5 0.6 CPI同比% 1.7 3.2 1.8 财政余额% -3.0 -2.9 -2.9 资料来源:意大利银行、意大利经济与财政部、联合圣保罗银行 资料来源:意大利银行、意大利经济与财政部、联合圣保罗银行 意大利政府债券持有者(十亿欧元及占总存量百分比) 意大利政府债券持有者(年度变动,十亿欧元) 截至 31/05/2026 金额 占总计% 意大利银行 541 20% 欧洲央行 47 2% 意大利银行 417 16% 其他金融机构 354 13% 家庭 423 16% 外国部门 875 33% 总计 2,656 100% 2025 2026 (*) 意大利银行 -67 -28 欧洲央行 -6 -2 意大利银行 33 15 其他金融机构 17 -4 家庭 36 19 外国部门 107 52 总计 120 51 (*) 自 31/1 2/2025 至最近更新(截至 31/05/2026)的变动 资料来源:意大利银行、意大利经济与财政部、彭博、联合圣保罗银行 资料来源:意大利银行、意大利经济与财政部、彭博、联合圣保罗银行 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 CCTeu BTP BTP通胀挂钩 BOT BTP ST -80 -40 0 40 80 120 160 200 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 F BOT BTP ST CCTeu BTP BTP通胀挂钩

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Intesa Sanpaolo SpA acts as market maker in the wholesale markets for the government securities of the main European countries and also acts as Government Bond Specialist, or in comparable roles, for the government securities issued , among others , by the Republic of Italy. 2026 Italian Government Issuance 28 August 2026 Produced by the Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Research Department Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Research Department – Head of Research Gregorio De Felice Macroeconomic Analysis Luca Mezzomo (Head) luca.mezzomo@intesasanpaolo.com Rates, FX & Commodities Research Chiara Manenti (Head) chiara.manenti@intesasanpaolo.com Sergio Capaldi (Rates) sergio.capaldi@intesasanpaolo.com Asmara Jamaleh (FX) asmara.jamaleh@intesasanpaolo.com Daniela Corsini (Commodities) daniela.corsini@intesasanpaolo.com
AI 分析
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关键论点
  • 2026年总发行额预测为5450亿欧元,高于2025年的5470亿欧元,反映赎回增加和持续1000亿欧元的净发行。
  • BTP发行仍然是融资核心,以7年期和10年期为主要基准。
  • CCTeu的净发行预计将大幅为正(+200亿欧元),支持浮动利率领域的流动性。
  • 2026年国家部门借款需求预测为1350亿欧元,通过净发行和国库余额动用筹资。
  • 截至2026年5月,外国对意大利国债的持有增加了520亿欧元,而意大利央行的持有减少了280亿欧元。
风险
  • 赎回额高于预期或赤字扩大可能迫使发行额增加,从而给BTP收益率带来压力。
  • 意大利央行减持国债(2026年减少280亿欧元)可能削弱一个关键需求来源,可能影响市场稳定。
  • 对外国投资者的依赖(目前持有33%)使意大利面临全球风险偏好变化的影响。
  • 宏观经济前景弱于预期可能扩大财政赤字,使融资需求超过预测。