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法国外贸银行 · Alicia GARCIA HERRERO · 2026/09/02

香港贸易重新布线:中国出口减少,世界进口增多

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营销沟通:本文件为营销材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;且不受投资研究发布前禁止交易的任何限制。研究 02 年 2026 月 亚太主题洞察 – 香港贸易 香港贸易重新布线:中国出口减少,世界进口增多 作者:Alicia GARCIA HERRERO 电话:+85239008680 alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com Gary NG 电话:+85239151242 gary.ng@natixis.com 发现我们的更多研究…… 请访问 research.natixis.com 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 香港:按原产地和目的地划分的转口贸易(%) 中国大陆到中国大陆 中国大陆到外国 外国到中国大陆 外国到外国 注:数据截至 2026 年 6 月。十二个月平均值。M.China 指中国大陆。来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 0 5 10 15 20 25 中欧与东欧 中南美洲 大洋洲 中东 非洲 西欧 北美洲 亚洲(除中国大陆) 中国大陆进口经香港转口份额(按原产地划分)(%) 6 月 2026 2015 注:M.China 指中国大陆。来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处

亚洲主题洞察 2 执行摘要 亚洲出口在 2026, 表现良好,而香港是区域内表现最强劲的经济体之一。通过追踪按生产地和目的地划分的转口贸易数据,我们可以揭示常规双边贸易统计往往掩盖的信息,这对关税、供应链多元化和日益增长的地缘政治审视具有重要意义。这些数据的细粒度也有助于回答一个关于香港的重要问题,即其在连接中国(“中国大陆”)与世界方面仍扮演何种角色?为何相关?答案在三个层面具有重要意义。中国和香港分属不同关税区,因此本分析考察供应链如何通过中间枢纽进行重新路由。对于中国而言,它显示香港是否在采购、分销和对外贸易中更加深入融入。转向香港,则显示其中转港角色是在衰落,还是演变为与中国及全球网络的新的更高价值结构。香港角色的变化 常规双边贸易数据通常无法保留通过中间经济体转售商品时的完整链条。香港的数据单独识别了转口商品的产地和离港后的目的地。我们发现,香港在分销中国制造商品方面的作用减弱,但在为中国采购外国商品和中介海外市场间贸易方面作用增强。中国原产商品占转口总额的比例在 61% 为 2015,但到 2026, 年6月仅为 40%;而外国原产商品的比例从 39% 飙升至 60%。中国转运商品的相关性下降 通过香港转运并再出口回中国的中国制造商品,从 2015 年的 25% 下降到 2026 年6月的 20%。尽管中国贸易顺差不断扩大,香港在中国制造商品分销方面的作用现在有所减弱。通过香港转口至海外目的地的中国原产商品也从 2015 年的 36% 降至 2026 年6月的 20%。这些趋势与保税区的发展以及美国将香港视为同一关税区的事实相符,从而减少了通过香港中转贸易的必要性。科技需求带动香港转口至中国及其他地区 相反,香港在为外国商品进入中国方面变得更加重要。通过香港转口至中国的外国原产商品从 2015 年的 29% 增至 2026 年6月的 41%。同样,转口至中国以外目的地的外国原产商品占香港转口贸易的比例从 2015 年的 11% 升至 2026 年6月的 19%。这反映了香港在半导体及相关产品的采购和分销方面的优势。此外,美国的出口管制措施不如以往严格,执行上更具灵活性。对人工智能需求的日益增长是香港采购作用急剧增强的重要原因。事实上,半导体相关产品占总贸易的比例从 2015 的 25% 飙升至 2026 年6月的 42%。

亚洲主题洞察 3 转口角色之变 尽管地缘政治紧张,香港的转口角色并未消失,而是在转向。中国直接贸易能力的提升以及越南等其他转口港的崛起,正在削弱香港的旧有模式。然而,日益碎片化的全球贸易和人工智能的增长正为新模式奠定基础。香港正逐渐减少作为中国出口的代理,而更多地暴露于中国对外国技术的需求。

亚洲主题洞察 4 按生产地和目的地追溯转口贸易 今年迄今,亚洲出口表现良好,香港是该区域表现较为强劲的经济体之一(图表 1 和 2)。通过按生产地和目的地追溯转口贸易,数据揭示了常规双边贸易统计常掩盖的信息,这对关税、供应链多元化和日益上升的地缘政治审查具有影响。这些数据的细粒度也有助于回答一个对香港重要的问题,即它在连接中国(“中国大陆”)与世界方面仍扮演何种角色?为何重要?对全球、中国和香港供应链的影响 答案在三个层面至关重要。中国和香港在不同关税区运作,因此此分析探讨供应链如何通过中介枢纽改道。对中国而言,这显示香港是否更深入地融入采购、分销和对外贸易。对香港而言,这指示其转口角色是在消退,还是演变为与中国及全球网络的新的更高价值结构。贸易流动的四个维度 常规双边贸易数据在货物通过中介经济体重新分配时,通常无法保留完整链条。然而,香港数据单独识别了转口货物的生产地和离开香港后的目的地。我们的分析基于四个指标:a) 中国制造货物回流中国;b) 中国货物分销至海外市场;c) 外国货物经香港进入中国;d) 外国货物转口至其他海外市场(表 1)。表 1:按原产地和目的地划分的香港各类转口贸易重要性 原产地 目的地 重要性 中国大陆 中国大陆 离岸分销和商业枢纽,处于以中国为中心的供应链中 中国大陆 国外 中国通往全球市场的传统出口门户 外国 中国大陆 中国的进口和采购门户 外国 国外 第三方市场分销枢纽,连接中国以外的海外市场 来源:Natixis 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 澳大利亚 印度尼西亚 日本 泰国 越南 菲律宾 中国大陆 印度 台湾 新加坡 马来西亚 香港 韩国 图表 X 亚太地区:出口(同比%,季调,六月 2026)来源:Natixis,各国政府,CEIC -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 图表 2 香港:对外贸易(同比%) 出口 进口 注:数据截至七月 2026。三个月均值。来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处,CEIC

亚洲主题洞察 5 我们发现,香港在中国制造商品分销中的作用有所减弱,但在为中国采购外国商品以及中介海外市场之间贸易方面的作用有所增强(图表 3 和 4)。中国原产地的流量在 2015 年占总量的 61%,但在 2026, 年 6 月仅占 40%,而外国原产地的流量从 39% 激增至 60%。从 2025 年和 2026, 年 6 月按原产地和目的地划分的前 15 条航线来看,香港在从台湾、韩国、日本和美国向中国大陆进口商品方面发挥着更大的作用,这一趋势也十分明显(图表 5 和 6)。由于美国加征关税,中国对美出口(曾是第二大贸易航线)的重要性大幅下降。与此同时,我们看到与东盟和中东国家的航线也进入了前十大航线。中国制造商品的相关性下降,内地发展减少了对往返贸易的需求,通过香港转运然后再出口回中国的中国制造商品也从 2015 年的 25% 下降到 2026, 年 6 月的 20%,但价值仍在持续增长。因此,香港失去了市场份额,但这并不意味着所有中国原产地的流量都在收缩。0 50 100 150 200 250 0 50 100 150 200 250 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 百万 百万 图表 3 香港:按原产地和目的地划分的转口贸易(百万港元)中国内地至中国内地 中国内地至外国 外国至中国内地 外国至外国 注:数据截至 2026 年 6 月。十二个月移动平均。M.China 指中国大陆。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 图表 4 香港:按原产地和目的地划分的转口贸易(%)中国内地至中国内地 中国内地至外国 外国至中国内地 外国至外国 注:数据截至 2026 年 6 月。十二个月移动平均。M.China 指中国大陆。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 0 10 20 30 中国内地—台湾 中国内地—越南 中国内地—英国 中国内地—荷兰 泰国—中国内地 中国内地—印度 中国内地—德国 美国—中国内地 马来西亚—中国内地 中国内地—日本 韩国—中国内地 日本—中国内地 台湾—中国内地 中国内地—美国 中国内地—中国内地 图表 5 香港转口:前 15 条航线(占总量的%,2015, 年,从—至)来自中国内地 来自外国 注:M.China 指中国大陆。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 0 10 20 30 中国内地—日本 菲律宾—中国内地 中国内地—泰国 新加坡—中国内地 中国内地—阿联酋 马来西亚—中国内地 中国内地—印度 中国内地—台湾 中国内地—美国 中国内地—越南 美国—中国内地 日本—中国内地 韩国—中国内地 台湾—中国内地 中国内地—中国内地 图表 6 香港转口:前 15 条航线(占总量的%,2026, 年 6 月,从—至)来自中国内地 来自外国 注:M.China 指中国大陆。数据为 12 个月移动。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处

亚洲主题洞察 6 在中国出口中角色减小 尽管中国的贸易顺差不断扩大,但香港在中国制造商品分销中的作用正在减小。经香港转口至海外目的地的中国原产商品,占香港总转口额的比例从2015年的36%降至2026年6月的20%。这一比例的下降反映了其他贸易流量的更快增长。然而,该类别是唯一一个价值低于2019年和2022年峰值的类别。这些趋势与保税区的发展以及美国将香港视为同一司法管辖区的事实相符,从而减少了通过香港进行贸易中转的需求(图表7和8)。科技需求推动中国进口及全球贸易 更多进口进入中国 相反,香港在中国采购外国商品方面变得更加重要。经香港转口至中国的外国原产商品,占香港总转口额的比例从2015年的29 %升至2026年6月的41%。这反映了香港在国际采购和分销方面的优势,尤其是电子产品和半导体。从中国的角度来看,经香港进口的份额从2015年的9%升至2026年6月的12%。香港已成为中国更重要的采购渠道。在全球范围内,中国对香港在与亚洲相关供应链进口方面的依赖度有所增加,占该地区进口总额的22%。在较小程度上,这也适用于北美,因为中美直接贸易有所下降(图表9)。全球市场的中转枢纽 香港在海外市场之间贸易中的作用也有所扩大。经香港转口至中国以外目的地的外国原产商品,占香港总转口额的比例从2015年的11%升至2026年6月的19%,且价值不断上升。这表明其增长是实质性的,而不仅仅是基数效应。这指向了香港在日益复杂的亚洲供应链中,作为区域采购和再分配枢纽的更广泛角色。2026,年6月,亚洲供应商出口至香港的商品中,有70%被转口至中国,低于2015年的80%(图表10)。其他市场正利用香港作为进入中国的枢纽,向其出口商品。0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 图表7 中国内地:通过海关特殊监管区域贸易份额(%) 出口 进口 注:数据截至2026年6月。十二个月平均值。来源:Natixis,中国海关总署,CEIC 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 巴生港 杰贝阿里 天津 釜山 广州 青岛 深圳 宁波-舟山 新加坡 上海 图表8 前10大集装箱港口吞吐量(十亿标准箱,2025) 中国 其他 来源:Natixis,DynaLiners

亚洲主题洞察 7 AI作为潜在驱动因素 主要动力来自对AI日益增长的需求,这调动了整个亚洲的电子产品供应链。6月份,亚洲科技敞口较高的经济体出口同比增长47%,而其他市场同比增长17%(图表11)。在香港,半导体相关产品占贸易总额的比重从2015年的25%飙升至6月份的42%,反映出其日益增长的重要性及其在捕捉顺风中的位置,尽管该市缺乏制造能力(图表12)。结论:转口角色转变 尽管地缘政治紧张,香港的转口角色并未消失,但方向正在改变。中国的直接贸易能力以及其他转口港(如越南)的出现,正在削弱香港的旧有模式。然而,日益碎片化的全球贸易和AI的增长为新模式奠定了基础。香港越来越不再是中国出口的代理,而更多地暴露于中国对外国技术的需求。 0 5 10 15 20 25 中欧和东欧 中南美洲 大洋洲 中东 非洲 西欧 北美洲 亚洲(不含中国大陆) 图表9 按来源国分列的中国经香港中转进口占比(%) 2024年6月 2026 2015 注:M.China指中国大陆。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 0 20 40 60 80 100 西欧 中南美洲 中东 中欧和东欧 非洲 亚洲 北美洲 大洋洲 图表10 按来源国分列的出口至香港并最终运往中国大陆的占比(%) 2024年6月 2026 2015 资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 图表11 亚太地区:出口增长(同比%,季调后) 技术敞口较高 技术敞口较低 注:数据截至2024年6月2026。多个市场的平均值。三个月移动平均。资料来源:Natixis,各国政府,CEIC 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26* 图表12 香港:半导体相关贸易 半导体相关贸易(十亿美元) 半导体相关贸易占比(右轴) 注:数据截至2024年6月2026。*截至2024年12月的2026个月滚动值。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处,CEIC

亚洲主题洞察 8 附录 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 菲律宾 台湾 韩国 越南 新加坡 美国 以色列 日本 英国 马来西亚 泰国 法国 南非 意大利 爱尔兰 印度 比利时 墨西哥 德国 瑞士 澳大利亚 2024年6月 2026 2015 注:市场贸易额将超过港币10百万。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 图表13 主要15市场:按来源国分列的中国经香港中转进口占比(%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 韩国 台湾 马来西亚 菲律宾 新加坡 日本 德国 越南 泰国 墨西哥 爱尔兰 南非 美国 澳大利亚 意大利 英国 法国 瑞士 比利时 以色列 印度 2024年6月 2026 2015 注:市场贸易额将超过港币10百万。资料来源:Natixis,香港政府统计处 图表14 主要15市场:经香港出口至中国大陆的占比(%)

A SIA T HEMATIC I NSIGHTS 9 企业与投资银行研究主管 亚太区首席经济学家 Jean-François Robin Alicia Garcia Herrero +33 1 58 55 13 09 +852 3900 8680 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com 新兴亚洲 大中华区 日本、太平洋 Trinh Nguyen Jianwei Xu Kohei Iwahara +852 3900 8726 +852 3900 8034 +813 4519 2144 trinh.nguyen@natixis.com jianwei.xu@natixis.com kohei.iwahara@natixis.com 亚太主题研究 Gary Ng Haoxin Mu +852 3915 1242 +852 3900 8067 gary.ng@natixis.com haoxin.mu@natixis.com 法国外贸银行企业与投资银行研究

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 香港在中国制造商品的分销中发挥的作用减小,但在为中国采购外国商品和中介海外市场贸易方面发挥的作用增大。
  • 中国原产转口占比下降与保税区发展以及美国将香港视为同一司法管辖区有关。
  • 技术需求,尤其是人工智能,推动香港采购角色增长,半导体相关产品从总贸易的25%升至42%。
风险
  • 地缘政治紧张和美国出口管制可能进一步降低中国对香港转口的依赖。
  • 美国关税可能导致经由香港的中国出口进一步下降,但类似电子产品可能受影响较小。
  • 来自越南等其他中转港的竞争可能削弱香港传统转口模式。