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法国外贸银行 · Christopher HODGE · 2026/08/31

美国双重使命快照 – 2026年8月

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双重使命快照 2023年8月 克里斯托弗·霍奇 美国首席经济学家 christopher.hodge@natixis.com 塞琳·阿克 美国经济学家 selin.aker@natixis.com

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 美国:劳动力与通胀 7月摘要 ▪ 7月劳动力数据明确表现疲软,非农就业人数远低于预期,录得-23千(共识预期:80千)。这是连续第四个月就业增长放缓,尽管对劳动力市场前景不必恐慌,但确实需要更多谨慎。我们一直认为劳动力市场几乎没有通胀推动力,这也是我们对未来几个月通胀轨迹持乐观态度的重要原因。请在此处阅读我们关于7月就业回顾的更多内容:劳动力市场稳定?没那么快,我的朋友,点击此处。▪ 通胀压力有所减弱,尽管速度慢得令人沮丧,7月CPI数据证明了物价持续降温。总体和核心CPI均符合预期,应能略微减轻美联储9月加息的压力,尽管在此之前还有一份通胀数据和一份就业报告。这仍然是一个以通胀为先的美联储,但鉴于最新的就业数据,美联储不能再只关注通胀。在不久的将来,所有美联储会议都需要计入意外情况的可能性,但我们仍然认为,在通胀缓慢逐渐回落、消费领域降温以及就业前景更加不确定的情况下,美联储能够勉强避免加息。请在此处阅读我们关于7月CPI回顾的更多内容:接近完美,点击此处。2 美国展望 -23千 非农就业人数 4.1% 失业率 0.07% 环比 0.22% 环比 总体CPI 核心CPI

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国:劳动力市场 3 美国展望

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 劳动力市场展望 4 美国展望 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 劳动力市场信号好坏参半,而招聘疲软和劳动参与率下降表明不会重新加速。7月-25 8月-25 9月-25 10月-25 11月-25 12月-25 1月-26 2月-26 3月-26 4月-26 5月-26 6月-26 7月-26 非农就业增长(千人) 19 -9 23 -45 -8 -39 61 -4 73 69 142 77 20 招聘率(%) 3.37 3.30 3.27 3.27 3.27 3.27 3.30 3.27 3.33 3.30 3.37 3.33 3.35 劳动力市场差异(%) 12.0 11.4 10.3 10.0 9.0 8.9 7.8 7.0 6.2 6.4 6.2 5.4 4.0 NFIB招聘计划(%) 13.0 14.0 15.0 15.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 15.0 13.3 12.3 11.3 11.0 13.3 ADP(千人) 17 42 71 52 61 44 41 38 46 77 96 107 87 工资增长(%,年化) 3 391.6 377.0 323.2 400.9 386.6 346.6 306.3 318.3 369.4 368.2 341.4 302.2 212.7 离职率(%) 2.07 2.03 1.97 1.93 1.93 1.97 2.00 1.97 1.97 1.93 1.97 1.97 2.00 初请失业金人数(千人) 232 231 230 230 229 224 218 217 213 213 209 213 213 裁员率(%) 1.13 1.17 1.13 1.17 1.10 1.10 1.03 1.07 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.07 1.10 失业率(%) 4.23 4.23 4.33 4.38 4.45 4.45 4.40 4.37 4.33 4.33 4.30 4.27 4.20 就业不足率(%) 7.80 7.90 8.03 8.20 8.40 8.50 8.40 8.13 8.00 8.03 8.10 8.07 7.97 持续申请失业金人数(千人) 1927 1945 1940 1936 1936 1927 1903 1872 1851 1830 1805 1791 1791 职位空缺/失业人数 1.00 0.98 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.89 0.91 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.99 0.95 失业周数 10.07 10.07 9.98 9.95 10.38 10.73 11.17 11.20 11.20 11.37 11.20 11.03 10.75 职位空缺(%) 4.33 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.23 4.13 4.17 4.20 4.27 4.33 4.43 4.50 4.45 注:上述变量以3个月移动平均值表示。 就业扩张 就业缩减 重新进入风险

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 就业增长与失业率 5 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 非农就业转负…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……而失业率在7月继续下降。 -100 100 300 500 700 900 21 22 23 24 25 26 (千人) 非农就业 就业人数 就业人数(3个月移动平均) 2018-2019 平均而言,就业增长集中在服务业…… -100 900 22 23 24 25 26 (千人) 各行业就业变化 采矿、伐木与建筑业 制造业 服务业(低薪) 服务业(高薪) 政府部门 ……主要由私营教育和医疗保健以及休闲和酒店业推动。 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 22 23 24 25 26 (%) 失业率 失业率 长期失业率(美联储) -500 500 1500 2500 3500 1月-23 7月-23 1月-24 7月-24 1月-25 7月-25 1月-26 千人 自2023年初以来的就业增长 私营教育/医疗 政府 休闲/酒店 其他

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 职位空缺、招聘与离职 6 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 职位空缺已趋稳…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……现在大约每个求职者对应一个职位空缺。低裁员-低招聘的动态仍在持续…… ……而离职率仍基本持平。 3 4 5 6 7 8 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 % 千人 职位空缺 职位空缺(3个月移动平均) 职位空缺率(右轴) 0 1 2 3 16 18 20 22 24 26 (比率) 职位空缺与失业人数 V/U 2 4 6 8 10 12 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (%) 离职率 0 2 4 6 8 10 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (%) 裁员率与招聘率 裁员率 招聘率

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 行业劳动力需求 7 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 大多数行业的职位空缺率高于6个月前…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……但与一年前的职位空缺率相比并不突出。近几个月大多数行业的辞职率保持稳定…… ……但仍低于一年前的水平,在大多数行业中如此。 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 休闲与酒店业 建筑业 信息业 教育/医疗 金融 专业与商业服务 全部私营 州与地方政府 联邦政府 采矿和伐木业 制造业 贸易/运输 其他 -1.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.9 信息业 休闲与酒店业 教育/医疗 金融 州与地方政府 全部私营 联邦政府 专业与商业服务 采矿和伐木业 其他 制造业 建筑业 贸易/运输 0 2 4 6 8 分行业职位空缺 3个月移动平均 6个月前 (%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 分行业辞职率 3个月移动平均 6个月前 (%)

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 劳动力市场活力 8 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 劳动力流动率上升,部分反映了劳动力减少…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……而招聘活动和工人信心仍然低迷。如果职位空缺恢复下行趋势…… ……这将意味着失业率面临上行压力。 0 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 职位空缺率 (%) 失业率 (%) 贝弗里奇曲线 12月-00至6月-09 7月-09至3月-20 4月-20至最新 6月-26 3 4 5 6 7 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (%) 劳动力流动率:招聘和辞职/劳动力 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (%) 辞职率 60 110 160 210 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (2020=100) (千人) 职位空缺 JOLTS Indeed

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 基于调查的劳动力市场展望 9 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 劳动力市场差异略有改善… 来源:Natixis, Haver …但消费者预期仍喜忧参半。小企业对扩大劳动力队伍更为乐观… …而制造业和服务业的招聘仍不均衡。 2 4 6 8 10 12 -80 -30 20 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 21 25 (%平衡) (%) 世界大型企业联合会就业调查 vs. 失业率 劳动力市场差异 失业率(右轴) 20 30 40 50 60 70 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 50+ = 扩张 ISM调查 - 就业 制造业 服务业 0 10 20 30 40 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (%,3个月移动平均) NFIB小企业调查 计划增加员工 现在是扩张的好时机 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 40 45 50 55 60 65 22 23 24 25 26 纽约联储消费者预期调查 若今日失业,未来3个月找到工作的预期 一年后失业率上升的预期(右轴) (%平均概率) (%平均概率)

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 劳动力人口结构 10 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 年龄在20至24岁的专业人士失业率有所改善… 来源:Natixis, Haver …但劳动力持续收缩。外国出生的工人参与率更高… …但其数量有所下降。 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 22 23 24 25 26 劳动力月度净变化 外国出生劳动力参与率变化 本土出生劳动力参与率变化 劳动力参与率总变化 (千人) -6 0 6 12 0 100 200 300 400 500 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 边境遭遇与外国出生工人就业 边境遭遇(左轴) 外国出生工人(右轴) (千人) (%同比,3个月移动平均) 0 2 4 6 8 10 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ 各年龄组失业率 7月-24 7月-25 7月-26 (%) 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 劳动力参与率 本土出生 外国出生 (%)

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 工资增长与平均收入 11 美国展望 来源:Natixis,CBO,Haver 工资增长有所放缓… 来源:Natixis, Haver …实际平均收入依然低迷。CBO预计净移民将放缓… …这可能预示着工资增长将反弹。 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 净移民 合法永久居民 非移民签证持有者 其他外国人(含非法移民) (百万人) 2 3 4 5 6 7 21 22 23 24 25 % 工资增长 3个月年化 6个月年化 同比 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 实际平均时薪,全部私营部门(经季节性调整,1982-84美元/小时,%同比) -5 0 5 10 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 移民与工资增长 移民(12个月移动平均) 工资(12个月移动平均,提前22个月) (%) r=-0.87

C2 - 内部资料 法国外贸银行 美国展望 初请失业金人数与失业持续时间 12 美国展望 资料来源:法国外贸银行,Haver 初请和续请失业金人数近期均有所下降…… 资料来源:法国外贸银行,Haver ……而就业不足率也有所回落。更多失业者花费更长时间寻找工作…… ……失业持续时间中位数仍处高位。 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 150 200 250 22 23 24 25 26 (千人) 失业金申领 初请失业金人数(4周移动平均)- 左轴 续请失业金人数(4周移动平均)- 右轴 (千人) 8 13 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (周) 失业持续时间中位数 失业持续时间 3个月移动平均 0 10 20 30 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 % 失业/就业不足 失业 因经济原因从事兼职 不在劳动力市场但想工作 0 10 20 30 0 10000 20000 30000 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 (周) (千人) 失业持续时间 少于5周 5-14周 15-26周 27周或以上 中位数

C2 - 内部资料 法国外贸银行 美国展望 -500 0 500 1000 23 24 25 26 千人 自2023年以来部分行业就业增长 建筑业 制造业 信息业 金融活动 专业/商业服务 裁员与人工智能 13 美国展望 资料来源:法国外贸银行,Haver 7月暗示裁员人数上升,但基本处于正常水平…… 资料来源:法国外贸银行,Haver ……且各行业裁员情况不一。在受人工智能影响最大的行业,就业增长有所下降…… ……而人工智能相关的裁员总体呈上升趋势。 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1月-21 10月-21 7月-22 4月-23 1月-24 10月-24 7月-25 4月-26 克利夫兰联储 WARN通知 警告因素(标准差,正值=更多裁员) 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 5月-21 3月-22 1月-23 11月-23 9月-24 7月-25 5月-26 按原因划分的裁员 人工智能 经济状况 关税 破产 重组与关闭 政府效率部门行动与成本削减 其他 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 5月-23 11月-23 5月-24 11月-24 5月-25 11月-25 5月-26 按原因划分的裁员:人工智能(数量)

C2 - 内部资料 法国外贸银行 美国展望 总体状况 14 美国展望 资料来源:法国外贸银行,Haver 劳动力市场似乎显示出降温迹象,招聘活动低迷以及劳动力参与率下降表明对劳动力市场前景存在一定谨慎。劳动力市场看起来并未收紧,短期内不太可能产生显著的通胀压力。 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 劳动力市场紧张程度指标 全国独立企业联合会:%企业有空缺职位无法填补 全国独立企业联合会:每家企业平均就业变化 全国独立企业联合会:%计划增加就业 离职率 职位-工人缺口 世界大型企业联合会:劳动力市场差值 失业率(反向) 平均Z分数 Z分数

C2 - 内部资料 美国:通胀 15 美国展望

C2 - Natixis内部文件 美国展望 通胀展望 16 美国展望 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 7月份通胀继续显示出放缓迹象,且价格压力下降的范围较为广泛。注:数值为环比变化;颜色反映各组成部分相对于其历史均值和标准差计算的z分数。较暖色调表示通胀高于通常水平;较冷色调表示读数低于通常水平。7月-25 8月-25 9月-25 10月-25 11月-25 12月-25 1月-26 2月-26 3月-26 4月-26 5月-26 6月-26 7月-26 总体CPI 0.23 0.35 0.30 - - - 0.17 0.27 0.87 0.64 0.47 -0.42 0.07 - - - 家庭食品 0.02 0.51 0.28 - - - 0.19 0.44 -0.16 0.68 0.06 0.19 -0.07 外出就餐食品 0.28 0.29 0.14 - - - 0.15 0.32 0.24 0.23 0.30 0.23 0.31 能源商品 -1.10 1.58 3.41 - - - -3.26 1.10 21.35 5.62 6.70 -9.48 -2.92 能源服务 -0.16 -0.16 -0.45 - - - 0.19 0.17 0.41 1.62 0.36 -0.69 0.26 - - - 核心CPI 0.31 0.31 0.22 - - - 0.30 0.22 0.20 0.38 0.21 -0.02 0.22 - - - 核心商品 0.21 0.22 0.20 - - - 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.03 -0.11 -0.09 0.20 家居用品及供应品 0.64 0.12 0.25 - - - 0.29 0.23 -0.18 -0.50 -0.24 -0.13 0.08 服装 0.11 0.26 0.54 - - - 0.31 1.28 1.03 0.64 0.29 -0.55 0.09 交通商品(不包括汽车燃油) 0.24 0.44 0.04 - - - -0.66 -0.10 -0.07 -0.10 -0.14 -0.08 0.23 新车 0.04 0.23 0.16 - - - 0.15 0.04 0.10 -0.16 -0.26 -0.02 0.08 二手车和卡车 0.50 0.82 -0.21 - - - -1.84 -0.38 -0.42 0.00 0.10 -0.23 0.40 医疗护理商品 0.05 -0.26 -0.06 - - - -0.06 -0.04 -0.98 -0.35 -0.71 -0.16 -0.61 娱乐商品 0.44 0.01 0.36 - - - 0.63 0.36 0.53 0.07 -0.06 0.92 0.61 教育通信商品 -1.12 -0.37 -0.60 - - - 0.27 -3.03 0.34 0.54 -0.02 -0.84 1.33 酒精饮料 0.10 0.59 0.20 - - - 0.18 0.11 0.26 0.28 0.06 0.03 0.18 其他商品 0.12 0.43 0.52 - - - 1.07 0.09 0.46 0.52 0.15 -0.22 0.37 - - - 核心服务 0.35 0.32 0.23 - - - 0.39 0.27 0.23 0.50 0.29 0.03 0.23 住房 0.22 0.38 0.22 - - - 0.20 0.19 0.30 0.63 0.33 0.13 0.14 主要住所租金 0.23 0.29 0.22 - - - 0.25 0.13 0.19 0.55 0.36 0.15 0.26 外出住宿 -0.98 2.01 0.86 - - - -0.10 0.96 0.24 2.44 0.42 -2.32 -2.75 业主等效租金 0.28 0.34 0.16 - - - 0.22 0.22 0.28 0.53 0.30 0.24 0.26 - - - 水务、污水及垃圾收集服务 0.44 0.36 0.15 - - - 0.68 0.70 0.49 0.26 0.23 0.32 0.45 医疗护理服务 0.82 -0.08 0.24 - - - 0.33 0.61 0.01 0.00 0.53 -0.12 0.56 专业服务 0.72 0.10 -0.13 - - - 0.76 0.63 0.51 0.19 0.50 -0.12 0.41 医院及相关服务 0.44 -0.02 0.77 - - - 1.03 0.89 0.18 -0.25 0.62 0.12 0.40 健康保险 0.44 0.12 0.25 - - - -0.98 -1.12 -1.43 -0.41 -0.11 -0.46 -0.19 交通服务 0.62 0.88 0.28 - - - 1.35 0.24 0.61 0.33 -0.58 -0.35 0.28 机票价格 3.03 4.46 1.95 - - - 6.52 1.36 2.67 2.82 2.69 0.21 2.22 机动车保养与维修 1.02 2.41 0.19 - - - 0.10 0.89 1.25 -0.19 0.79 1.09 0.63 机动车保险 0.07 -0.05 -0.09 - - - -0.44 -0.33 -0.04 0.14 -1.69 -2.01 -0.29 娱乐服务 0.49 -0.15 0.38 - - - 0.39 -0.19 -0.37 0.08 0.50 0.27 0.00 教育通信服务 0.14 0.07 0.08 - - - 0.40 0.26 0.18 -0.09 0.88 -0.78 0.46 其他个人服务 0.52 0.11 0.17 - - - 1.61 -0.16 -0.83 1.16 1.40 0.49 -0.16

C2 - Natixis内部 美国展望 -1 4 9 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 (% 同比) 核心CPI 核心商品 核心服务(不含住房) 住房 核心CPI 核心商品、服务及住房通胀 17 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 年内,核心CPI增速已有所放缓…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……而核心CPI环比上升。年内,所有主要核心分项在7月均有所下降…… ……且核心商品在3个月年化基础上仍为负值。 -5 0 5 10 15 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (% 同比) CPI 核心商品 核心服务 住房 -10 0 10 20 30 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (%) CPI分项 核心商品 3m年化 超级核心 3m年化 住房 3m年化 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 ( % 环比) 核心CPI 核心商品 核心服务(不含住房) 住房 核心CPI

C2 - Natixis内部 美国展望 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 2 4 6 8 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 住房空置率 租赁空置率 业主空置率(右轴) (%) (%) 居住通胀 18 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 居住通胀的3个月趋势继续缓解…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……即便主要租金和业主等效租金在7月加速。 实时租金指标同比持平…… ……而待售房屋供应量整体下降。 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 (%) 居住通胀构成 主要租金 业主等效租金 居住 0 5 10 15 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 % 同比 租金:实时 vs. CPI Zillow CPI-OER 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 0 2 4 6 8 10 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 居住通胀 居住同比 居住环比(3mma,右轴) (%) (%)

C2 - Natixis内部 美国展望 -2 0 2 4 6 8 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 核心PCE平减指数 3m年化 6m年化 同比 (%) PCE通胀 19 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 伊朗战争后核心PCE有所上升,但已显现放缓迹象…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……而整体通胀在能源冲击推高后有所缓和。 环比来看,核心PCE受服务业主导…… ……同比来看,涨幅大部分由非周期性因素解释。 -1 1 3 5 7 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (% 同比) 核心PCE周期性与非周期性贡献 周期性贡献 非周期性贡献 核心PCE -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 23 24 25 26 核心PCE构成 核心商品 核心服务 核心PCE (% 环比) -2 0 2 4 6 8 22 23 24 25 26 整体PCE 耐用品 非耐用品 服务 整体PCE (% 同比)

C2 - Natixis内部 美国展望 企业价格与供应压力 20 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 进口价格持续上涨…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……受工业用品和资本品价格上涨推动。 制造业价格整体小幅回落…… ……而全球供应链压力有所缓解。 -5 0 5 10 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 进口价格 核心进口(3m年化) 核心进口(同比) (%) -5 0 5 10 2月-25 6月-25 10月-25 2月-26 6月-26 按类别划分的进口价格 食品、饲料和饮料 工业用品 资本品 汽车及零部件 不含汽车的消费品 (%同比) -20 30 80 130 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (指数) 支付价格指数 ISM 费城 纽约州 堪萨斯城(平均) 得克萨斯(平均) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 全球供应链压力指数 + 高于平均 - 低于平均

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 生产者价格通胀 21 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 生产者价格通胀同比回落…… 来源:Natixis, Haver ……最终需求环比基本持平…… ……核心商品和服务通胀均放缓…… ……7月贸易服务价格下跌。 -1 4 9 14 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (同比%) 生产者价格指数最终需求 除食品和能源外 除食品、能源和贸易外 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (环比%) 生产者价格指数最终需求 除食品和能源外 除食品、能源和贸易外 -2 -1 0 1 2 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (环比%) PPI最终需求 核心商品 服务 -10 0 10 20 30 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (%) 贸易服务PPI 贸易服务PPI(同比) 贸易服务PPI(环比) 贸易服务PPI(3移动平均)

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 通胀预期 22 美国展望 来源:Natixis, Haver 按季度计算,消费者预期一年后通胀上升。 来源:Natixis, Haver 10年期盈亏平衡利率当月上升。 通胀互换在曲线上全面小幅上升…… ……而小企业计划提价但不加薪。 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 23 24 25 (%) 按期限划分的通胀互换 1年通胀互换 2年通胀互换 5年通胀互换 1 3 5 7 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (同比%) 消费者通胀预期 密歇根大学(1年前瞻) 纽约联储(3年前瞻) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 10年盈亏平衡利率(%) 10年盈亏平衡 0 20 40 60 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 NFIB小企业调查 计划提价 计划提高薪酬(%,3移动平均)

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 特别图表:能源通胀热力图 23 美国展望 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 注:数值以所示单位表示。对于通胀和工资序列,阴影反映的是同比增速相对于该序列自身历史数据的 z 分数。对于价格和指数水平序列,阴影反映的是相对于其自身历史数据的 z 分数。能源价格/报告通胀/管道压力 10月-25 11月-25 12月-25 1月-26 2月-26 3月-26 4月-26 5月-26 6月-26 7月-26 布伦特近月合约价格/桶 60.07 59.48 57.87 60.26 64.52 91.00 98.06 98.51 81.79 79.22 总体CPI同比 - - 2.65 2.39 2.43 3.29 3.78 4.17 3.46 3.30 CPI食品同比 - - 3.04 2.93 3.14 2.75 3.22 3.08 2.99 2.94 CPI机票同比 - - -3.37 2.23 7.05 14.89 20.71 26.70 26.54 25.55 CPI其他市内交通同比 - - -2.70 -3.31 -1.86 0.26 -0.23 -2.40 -3.37 -4.41 汽油价格/加仑 3.08 3.07 2.91 2.84 2.93 3.70 4.13 4.50 4.05 3.97 旧金山联储非周期性同比 1.48 1.61 1.73 1.94 1.81 2.03 2.08 2.23 - - PPI核心商品同比 2.71 3.03 2.47 1.77 2.52 5.35 7.42 9.68 7.76 6.35 贸易服务同比 1.28 1.94 3.48 4.46 4.89 5.00 6.95 2.34 3.79 2.42 纽约联储全球供应链压力 标准差单位 -0.08 -0.13 0.58 0.47 0.58 0.68 1.84 1.81 1.19 0.79 更顽固的通胀动态 核心CPI同比 - - 2.65 2.51 2.47 2.60 2.74 2.82 2.57 2.47 超级核心同比 2.89 2.61 2.75 2.68 2.76 3.14 3.34 3.58 3.10 2.83 克利夫兰截尾均值CPI同比 2.99 2.86 2.91 2.72 2.67 2.64 2.83 2.91 2.63 2.60 克利夫兰中位数CPI同比 3.28 3.10 3.10 2.97 2.85 2.72 2.80 2.85 2.71 2.69 旧金山联储周期性同比 1.29 1.24 1.26 1.20 1.25 1.24 1.28 1.29 - - 定价意向 NFIB价格计划 %平衡 30.00 30.00 28.00 32.00 28.00 24.00 27.00 34.00 32.00 28.00 ISM制造业 - 支付价格指数 58.00 58.50 58.50 59.00 70.50 78.30 84.60 82.10 73.00 71.10 ISM服务业 - 支付价格指数 68.90 63.30 60.40 65.70 63.60 72.30 74.70 74.60 68.50 70.80 通胀预期 短期 密歇根大学 1年 % 4.60 4.50 4.20 4.00 3.40 3.80 4.70 4.80 4.60 4.20 纽约联储 1年 % 3.24 3.20 3.42 3.09 3.00 3.42 3.64 3.46 3.67 3.63 纽约联储 3年 % 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.98 3.00 3.08 3.15 3.13 3.34 3.26 互换 1年 % 3.58 3.54 3.45 3.39 3.43 3.38 3.67 3.69 3.80 4.01 互换 1年1年 % 3.09 3.08 3.01 3.15 3.20 2.93 3.49 3.64 3.87 3.97 互换 2年2年 % 3.26 3.26 3.19 3.44 3.48 3.09 3.49 3.59 3.79 3.80 长期 密歇根大学 5年 % 3.90 3.40 3.20 3.30 3.30 3.20 3.50 3.90 3.30 3.30 纽约联储CES 5年 % 3.00 2.98 2.98 3.00 2.98 3.05 3.01 3.02 3.00 3.02 互换 5年5年 % 2.25 2.18 2.21 2.22 2.15 2.12 2.17 2.27 2.22 2.23 10年 盈亏平衡通胀率 % 2.31 2.27 2.24 2.31 2.30 2.34 2.38 2.45 2.29 2.25 工资压力 AHE同比 3.92 3.93 3.73 3.66 3.70 3.43 3.57 3.34 3.41 3.15 ECI指数 174.05 174.05 174.05 175.62 175.62 175.62 - - - - 亚特兰大联储同比 - 4.00 3.70 3.60 3.70 3.90 3.60 3.50 3.60 3.80 Indeed工资增长同比 2.42 2.40 2.15 2.11 2.22 2.38 2.43 2.46 2.45 2.50 NFIB提高工资计划 %平衡 19.00 24.00 24.00 22.00 22.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 17.00 19.00

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 特别图表:能源相关通胀与消费者情绪 24 美国展望 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 能源价格在7月再次飙升…… 资料来源:Natixis, Haver ……而消费者情绪则有所软化。航空公司客运服务价格有所回落…… ……而海外旅行同比继续下降。 20 40 60 80 100 120 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 (未经季调,Q1-66=100) 美国密歇根消费者情绪指数 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 40 60 80 100 120 140 1月-26 2月-26 3月-26 4月-26 5月-26 6月-26 7月-26 8月-26 原油与美国汽油价格 WTI原油(近月合约1) 布伦特原油(近月合约1) 美国平均汽油价格(右轴) (美元/桶) (美元/加仑) -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 PPI要点:总体、能源及航空公司客运服务 总体PPI 能源PPI 航空公司客运服务PPI (%) -5 0 5 10 15 1月-25 5月-25 9月-25 1月-26 5月-26 美国飞往海外地区的航空客运量 (% 同比,季调)

C2 - 内部 Natixis 美国展望 特别图表: 2026 中期选举 25 美国展望 资料来源:Natixis, Bloomberg ……而且在共和党人和独立人士中也是如此。 资料来源:Natixis, Bloomberg, yougov.com 特朗普总统的支持率不仅在公众中下降…… 民主党在普选票中的领先优势扩大至共和党之上…… ……因为对国家方向看法恶化。 更多分析,请阅读《中期选举预览 – 第一部分 3》,此处 。 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1月-25 7月-25 1月-26 7月-26 (%) 全部 共和党 独立人士 MAGA共和党 非MAGA共和党 35 40 45 50 55 60 2月-25 5月-25 8月-25 11月-25 2月-26 5月-26 8月-26 支持率均值 不支持率均值 (%) 40 45 50 4月-25 6月-25 8月-25 10月-25 12月-25 2月-26 4月-26 6月-26 8月-26 普选票:共和党 vs. 民主党 民主党 共和党 (%) 20 30 40 50 60 70 1月-25 4月-25 7月-25 10月-25 1月-26 4月-26 7月-26 对国家方向看法的民调均值 正确 错误 (%)

C2 - 内部使用 Natixis Natixis CIB 全球团队 市场 实物资产 / 能源 研究部主管 Cyril Regnat +33 1 58 55 82 20 cyril.regnat@natixis.com 市场研究主管 Jean-François Robin +33 1 58 55 13 09 jean - francois.robin@natixis.com Florent Pochon +33 1 58 55 32 81 florent.pochon@natixis.com 跨资产策略主管 CEEMEA Inna Mufteeva, CFA +33 1 58 55 52 04 inna.mufteeva@natixis.com 外汇 Nordine Naam +33 1 58 55 14 95 nordine.naam@natixis.com Celine Clari +33 1 58 55 82 50 celine.clari@natixis.com 利率策略师 Benoit Gerard +33 1 58 55 44 86 benoit.gerard@natixis.com Thibaut Cuilliere +33 1 58 55 05 06 thibaut.cuilliere@natixis.com 实物资产研究主管 基础设施、绿色与混合型 Ivan Pavlovic +33 1 58 55 17 04 ivan.pavlovic@natixis.com 能源转型与大宗商品 Bernard Dahdah 基础金属与贵金属 +44 20 321 691 31 bernard.dahdah@natixis.com Joel Hancock 石油、天然气 +44 20 321 696 48 joel.hancock@natixis.com Nathalie Dezeure +33 1 58 55 99 93 nathalie.dezeure@natixis.com 宏观与金融机构研究主管 Sylwia Hubar +33 1 58 55 35 59 sylwia.hubar@natixis.com 房地产 宏观与金融机构 Theophile Legrand +33 1 58 55 44 14 theophile.legrand@natixis.com 宏观经济建模 Patricia Florez Cabra +33 1 58 55 62 71 patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com 房地产科技与数据专家 Micaella Feldstein +33 1 58 55 05 29 micaella.feldstein@natixis.com Eric Benoist +44 20 32 16 93 97 eric.benoist@natixis.com Thierry Cherel +33 1 58 55 14 68 thierry.cherel@natixis.com Roméo YOMBO - NGUITONGO +33 1 58 55 04 57 romeo.yombo - nguitongo@natixis.com Serge Herve NDOUMBE SAME +33 1 58 55 04 64 sergeherve.same@natixis.com 高收益 Jesus Castillo +33 1 58 55 99 90 jesus.castillo@natixis.com 西班牙、葡萄牙、希腊、欧元区 Hadrien Camatte +33 1 58 55 39 43 hadrien.camatte@natixis.com 法国、比利时、欧元区 Bastien Aillet +49 699 715 3358 bastien.aillet - ext@natixis.com 德国、欧元区银行 Baptiste Reuillon +33 1 58 55 19 87 baptiste.reuillon@natixis.com 电信与高收益 Gabriel LORETO +33 1 58 55 05 65 gabriel.loreto@natixis.com 欧洲宏观研究主管 Alain DURRE, Ph.D. +33 1 58 55 60 49 alain.durre@natixis.com Bouchra Rhajbal +33 1 58 55 79 93 bouchra.rhajbal@natixis.com 金融机构 Jennifer Levy +33 1 58 55 05 81 jennifer.levy@natixis.com 覆盖债券 美洲 Benito Berber +1 212 698 3044 benito.berber@natixis.com 美洲首席经济学家 Christopher Hodge +1 212-891-1917 christopher.hodge@natixis.com 美国首席经济学家 John Briggs +1 212 583 4982 john.briggs@natixis.com 美国利率策略主管 Selin Aker selin.aker@natixis.com 初级经济学家 美国 亚洲 Alicia Garcia Herrero +852 3900 8680 alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com 亚太首席经济学家 Kohei Iwahara +813 4519 2141 kohei.iwahara@natixis.com 日本、太平洋 Trinh Nguyen +852 3900 8726 trinh.nguyen@natixis.com 新兴亚洲 Gary Ng +852 3915 1242 gary.ng@natixis.com 亚太、主题研究 Jianwei Xu +852 3900 8034 jianwei.xu@natixis.com 大中华区 Haoxin Mu +852 3900 8067 haoxin.mu@natixis.com 投资策略与跨资产 Emilie Tetard +33 1 58 19 98 15 emilie.tetard@natixis.com 利率策略师 Eya Chamakhi +33 1 58 55 26 05 eya.chammakhi@natixis.com 信用策略 Gilles LECLERC +33 1 58 55 12 81 gilles.leclerc@natixis.com 运输与出行 Valentin Mory +33 1 58 55 04 98 valentin.mory@natixis.com

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Additionally, the Bank will not be liable for investment decisions made by the client based on the information derived or obtain from the Bank's materials. 29
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 7月非农就业降至-23k,远低于80k的预期,标志着就业增长连续第四个月放缓。
  • 通胀正在缓慢降温,7月总体CPI环比为0.07%,核心CPI环比为0.22%,均与预期一致。
  • 美联储仍以通胀为首要目标,但不能再只关注通胀,需考虑劳动力市场疲软。
  • Natixis预计美联储将勉强避免加息,得益于逐步的通胀回落和消费者领域降温。
  • 工资增长放缓,3个月年化工资增长为212.7个基点,减轻了通胀压力。
  • 能源价格7月再次飙升,WTI和布伦特原油上涨,可能对通胀构成上行风险。
  • 劳动力市场出现降温迹象,招聘低迷和劳动参与率下降,但尚未令人担忧。
  • 7月失业率降至4.1%,但劳动力市场差异指数和招聘计划表明疲软。
风险
  • 能源价格飙升可能重新点燃通胀。
  • 劳动力市场恶化可能快于预期,迫使美联储采取行动。
  • 如果价格压力持续,通胀预期可能失锚。
  • 全球供应链压力可能恶化,推高商品价格。
  • 中期选举带来的政策不确定性可能影响经济情绪。