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Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 24 August 2026 Daily Treasury Outlook Highlights Global: Friday offered some respite for risk assets, but it did little to dispel the gathering dark clouds facing financial markets. While the S&P500 rose 0.43%, led by financials, healthcare and materials, it still closed down 1.43% for the week. The UST bond market remained nervous, with the 10-year yield up 3bps at 4.73% while the 30-year yield touched its highest level since 2007 before easing, notwithstanding Treasury Secretary Bessent's earlier announcement to double long-dated buybacks to US$4bn per operation. Although flash PMIs showed U.S. services activity accelerating sharply to 56.8 for August, trade negotiations with Canada have broken down - US imposed 50% tariffs on around USD20bn of Canadian goods with Canada announcing retaliatory tariffs from 8 September as well. The other tail risk is the Iran conflict with the US president Trump threatening sanctions on countries trading with Iran. Meanwhile, China's July data industrial production and retail sales slowed to 4.5% and 0.6% respectively. Market Watch: Asian markets are likely to start today with a soft tone. Today's economic data calendar comprises of Taiwan's unemployment rate, and Chicago Fed national activity index. For the week ahead, watch the US' July core PCE inflation, durable goods orders and 2Q26 GDP growth estimates which may shape market expectations ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole appearance on Friday. China's industrial profits due Thursday will also be a key signal. Second, the Bank of Thailand meets Wednesday and is expected to hold at 1.00% despite a higher growth forecast and rising energy-driven inflation, while the Bank of Korea meets Thursday and may hike again by 25bps to 3.0% after July’s surprise tightening amid strong growth and above target infla tion. Similarly. BSP may also hike 25bps to 4.5% with inflation well above target. RBA minutes are also due tomorrow morning. Third, corporate earnings from Nvidia on Wednesday, followed by Marvell, CrowdStrike and PDD. SG: July headline and core inflation which are due today are expected at 2.4% and 2.3% respectively amid the electricity and gas rate adjustments due to the energy shock, versus 1.9% and 1.6% previously. The July industrial production is tipped to have grown 9.6% YoY (5.7% MoM), compared to 7.2% YoY (-7.2% MoM). PM Wong's National Day Rally speech unveiled more generous childcare leave, enhanced financial support for every Singaporean child, lower childcare and infant care fees at government-supported preschools and raised the BTO income ceiling for the first time in seven years to $16k etc. Major Markets ID: Foreign Minister Sugiono said Indonesia and China agreed to expand bilateral trade beyond its current USD167.0bn volume following their inaugural Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue last Friday (21 August) in Jakarta. Both sides began preliminary discussions on the 2027 to 2031 Action Plan and explored cooperation in artificial intelligence, advanced technology and quarantine standards, alongside plans for joint development of communication satellites and expanded local currency transactions. They also reaffirmed their commitment to financing ongoing Belt and Road Initiative projects, including the Jakarta Bandung Equity Value % chg S&P 500 7674.4 0.4% DJIA 53277 1.0% Nikkei 225 66016 -0.3% SH Comp 3905.2 0.0% STI 5689.0 0.3% Hang Seng 26009 1.2% KLCI 1736.5 0.0% Value % chg DXY 98.800 -0.1% USDJPY 158.95 -0.1% EURUSD 1.1679 0.0% GBPUSD 1.3644 0.1% USDIDR 17693 -0.3% USDSGD 1.2694 -0.2% SGDMYR 3.1827 0.0% Value chg (bp) 2Y UST 4.24 4.84 10Y UST 4.73 2.98 2Y SGS 1.68 -0.70 10Y SGS 2.36 -0.57 3M SORA 1.14 0.31 3M SOFR 3.64 0.09 Value % chg Brent 94.39 0.7% WTI 87.06 -0.9% Gold 4603 1.9% Silver 68.99 1.3% Palladium 1352 1.5% Copper 14216 1.3% BCOM 140.49 0.8% Source: Bloomberg Key Market Movements
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 2 By Global Markets | 24 August 2026 High Speed Railway, while prioritising cooperation in food security, critical minerals and strategic infrastructure. MY: Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi said the Johor Singapore Special Economic Zone has attracted a record MYR126.9bn in FDI since its formal establishment. The forthcoming JS SEZ masterplan will focus on accelerating investment approvals, facilitating the movement of goods and people, and developing higher value industries. Separately, Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Minister Armizan Mohd Ali said the federal government is expected to announce improvements to the targeted diesel subsidy mechanism in less than a month, earlier than the previously indicated one-to-two-month timeframe. Proposed improvements include simplifying applications, relaxing eligibility criteria for hire purchase vehicle takeovers and allowing quota transfers to immediate family members. AU: Business activity continued to expand in August, with the S&P Flash Composite PMI easing to 52.5 from 53.2 in July, marking the fourth expansion in private-sector activity over the past five months. Growth remained concentrated in services, with the Services PMI easing to 52.9 from 53.6, while the manufacturing PMI held at 52.0, indicating continued expansion at a broadly unchanged pace. New orders increased for a second consecutive month, while export demand also showed signs of improvement, particularly for Australian manufactured goods. Business confidence rose to a six-month high, and firms continued to add workers, although the pace of hiring moderated to its weakest in three months. Sustainability SG: Singapore and India reaffirmed efforts to deepen cooperation across areas including semiconductors, food security, digitalisation and skills development at the fourth India-Singapore Ministerial Roundtable. Singapore and India have been discussing how to ensure supplies do not get disrupted during crises, to ensure the continued supply of food from India to Singapore. They signed an MoU to strengthen bilateral technical cooperation and facilitate agri-food trade between the two countries. In addition, Singapore is keen to collaborate with India on space and nuclear technologies, reflecting efforts to deepen cooperation in strategic sectors that support long-term food and energy security. Credit Market Updates Market Commentary: • The SGD SORA OIS curve traded lower last Friday with the shorter tenors trading 1-2bps lower, belly tenors trading 1bps lower, and the 10Y tenor trading 1bps lower. • US Investment Grade spreads tightened by 1bps to 80bps, and US High Yield spreads tightened by 4bps to 269bps. Bloomberg Global Contingent Capital tightened by 2bps to 204bps. • Bloomberg Asia USD Investment Grade traded flat at 56bps, and the Asia USD High Yield spreads tightened by 2bps to 326bps. (Bloomberg, OCBC)
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 3 By Global Markets | 24 August 2026 New Issues: • There were no issuances in the Singdollar market last Friday. • The total issuances in the APAC and DM IG markets were USD1.15bn and zero respectively last Friday (prior day: USD2.8bn and USD2bn respectively). Credit Developments: • Bank of East Asia, Limited (BNKEA): Constructive 1H2026 results, with stronger revenue and operating efficiency supporting 16.5% PPOP growth, while elevated CRE-related impairments remain a concern; however, active portfolio diversification and very strong capital and liquidity provide meaningful credit support. • Olam Group Limited (OLGPSP): ofi secured USD1.05bn of revolving credit and term-loan facilities, initially guaranteed by Olam Group before the guarantee is transferred to ofi Group following the planned IPO and demerger. • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA): Strong AI cloud growth and substantial net cash liquidity support financial flexibility, but heavy AI investment, widening application losses ancad elevated capex are pressuring margins, free cash flow and the near-term net cash position. Equity Market Updates US: US stocks advanced Friday, the most recently completed major session ahead of the Asian open, lifted by strong business activity data and a surge in cryptocurrency markets, though Treasury yields near multi-decade highs capped gains and the S&P 500 posted its first weekly loss since late July. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.4%, and the Dow added 1.0%. The S&P Global flash US composite PMI climbed to 56 in August, its highest reading since April 2022, signalling the fastest expansion in business activity in over four years, bolstering corporate earnings optimism. Bitcoin surged approximately 9% to around USD77,000, its best weekly gain since March 2023 and up roughly 23% on the week, driven by institutional spot ETF inflows of approximately USD1.6b and President Trump's call for Congress to pass crypto legislation; Coinbase rose 10% and Robinhood gained 13%. The Nasdaq 100 snapped a five-day losing streak ahead of Nvidia's earnings due Wednesday. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year up nearly 5 basis points to 4.23% and the 10-year climbing 3 basis points to around 4.74%, as strong PMI data reinforced the case for further rate hikes, whilst the 30-year held near 5.28%, close to 19-year highs, as Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond buyback intervention struggled to durably suppress long-end yields. Notably, Alibaba announced a HKD80b share placement to fund AI expansion, whilst China's Vice Finance Minister signalled new fiscal support measures for the second half of the year as growth slips below Beijing's annual target. Jackson Hole begins this week, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural speech closely watched for policy signals.
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 4 Equity and Commodity Day Close % Change Day Close Index Value Net change DXY 98.800 -0.10% USD-SGD 1.2694 DJIA 53,277.01 517.80 USD-JPY 158.95 -0.06% EUR-SGD 1.4823 S&P 7,674.37 33.21 EUR-USD 1.168 0.01% JPY-SGD 0.7987 Nasdaq 26,180.46 113.29 AUD-USD 0.717 0.80% GBP-SGD 1.7325 Nikkei 225 66,016.36 -200.43 GBP-USD 1.364 0.10% AUD-SGD 0.9104 STI 5,688.96 17.05 USD-MYR 4.039 -0.16% NZD-SGD 0.7591 KLCI 1,736.48 -0.23 USD-CNY 6.721 -0.06% CHF-SGD 1.5845 JCI 6,525.69 24.10 USD-IDR 17693 -0.30% SGD-MYR 3.1827 Baltic Dry 2,841.00 50.00 USD-VND 26116 0.03% SGD-CNY 5.2969 VIX 15.13 -0.88 Tenor EURIBOR Change Tenor USD SOFR Tenor SGS (chg) UST (chg) 1M 2.2160 0.23% 1M 3.6854 2Y 1.68 (-0.01) 4.22(--) 3M 2.5240 0.68% 2M 3.7220 5Y 1.98 (--) 4.42 (+0.03) 6M 2.7650 1.02% 3M 3.7600 10Y 2.36 (-0.01) 4.71 (+0.03) 12M 3.0030 0.43% 6M 3.8620 15Y 2.44 (--) -- 1Y 4.0098 20Y 2.45 (+0.01) -- 30Y 2.49 (+0.01) 5.25 (+0.02) Meeting # of Hikes/Cuts % of Hikes/Cuts Implied Rate Change Expected Effective Fed Funds Rate SOFR 3.63 09/16/2026 0.399 39.900 0.100 3.731 10/28/2026 0.645 24.600 0.161 3.793 12/09/2026 1.039 39.400 0.260 3.891 Secured Overnight Fin. Rate Foreign Exchange SOFR Government Bond Yields (%) Fed Rate Hike Probability Energy Futures % chg Soft Commodities Futures % chg WTI (per barrel) 87.06 -0.9% Corn (per bushel) 4.838 1.0% Brent (per barrel) 94.39 0.7% Soybean (per bushel) 12.250 0.3% Heating Oil (per gallon) 449.48 0.3% Wheat (per bushel) 6.815 -0.2% Gasoline (per gallon) 334.79 2.6% Crude Palm Oil (MYR/MT) 47.910 1.2% Natural Gas (per MMBtu) 2.77 1.5% Rubber (JPY/KG) 4.789 0.0% Base Metals Futures % chg Precious Metals Futures % chg Copper (per mt) 14216 1.3% Gold (per oz) 4603 1.9% Nickel (per mt) 17058 1.1% Silver (per oz) 68.99 1.3% Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Commodities Futures Economic Calenda Date Time Country Code Event Period Survey Actual Prior Revised 8/24/2026 6:45 NZ Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ 2Q 0.20% -0.50% 0.90% 1.00% 8/24/2026 13:00 SI CPI YoY Jul 2.40% -- 1.90% -- 8/24/2026 13:00 SI CPI NSA MoM Jul 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 8/24/2026 13:00 SI CPI Core YoY Jul 2.20% -- 1.60% -- 8/24/2026 16:00 TA Unemployment Rate Jul 3.30% -- 3.33% -- 8/24/2026 16:20 TA Money Supply M2 Daily Avg YoY Jul -- -- 8.13% -- 8/24/2026 16:20 TA Money Supply M1B Daily Avg YoY Jul -- -- 9.40% -- 8/24/2026 20:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jul -0.05 -- -0.02 -- Source: Bloomberg
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AI analysis
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Key arguments
- UST yields remain elevated with 10-year at 4.73% despite buyback intervention.
- Flash PMIs show US services accelerating sharply, supporting rate hike expectations.
- Geopolitical risks from US-Canada trade tensions and Iran conflict.
- Central banks in Asia (BOT, BOK, BSP) expected to hold or hike rates.
- Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole speech key events for the week.
Risks
- Geopolitical escalation (US-Canada tariffs, Iran conflict) could disrupt markets.
- Higher-for-longer UST yields may pressure equities and credit spreads.
- Inflation surprises could force more aggressive central bank tightening.
- Slowdown in China's economy may weigh on global growth.