Qefmar2023 加拿大

关键论点

• 加息已令住房部门逆转、生产端趋于停滞；峰值冲击尚未到来，增长仍将低于趋势。
• 两家美国地区银行倒闭使3月加息50个基点退出选项；道明预计加息25个基点，但若信心未恢复则无紧迫性。
• 欧洲能源状况改善和中国退出清零政策令全球不确定性峰值已过，但仍需保持谨慎。
• 无论金融事件如何，通胀回落仍取决于劳动力市场正常化，包括失业率上升。

对应原文证据

1. A com - mon seasonal pattern that reflected an overlap of a corporate tax date and an increase in net Treasury issuance subsequently caused sharp upward pressure on money markets – far greater than could be explained by these usual seasonal influences.
2. What should have been a modest strain in money markets faced an amplifier against a backdrop of declining reserves under the Fed’s balance sheet normalization process.
3. Until market confidence is fully restored and assured on a lon - ger-term basis that there are no more SVB’s lurking, the Fed will prioritize financial stability over the near-term economic data. · near-term