US Rates Strategy Weekly
中文标题
美国利率策略周报
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
SMBC expects no Fed change next week and a resumption of hiking on December 9. Treasury coupon auction sizes are seen steady until February 2028, with bill supply rising about $1trn next year to 23.7% of outstanding debt. The desk doubts supply cuts or a push beyond 25% bills without wider bill/OIS spreads, and instead flags larger long-maturity liquidity buybacks. Q3 GDP is forecast at 3.6% q/q.
- Institution
- SMBC
- Published
- 10/23/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · US 10Y Treasury
- Time horizon
- 2026 · February 2028 · next year · next week
Key arguments
- Fed holds next week; SMBC looks for a December 9 hike resumption, though officials pushed back pre-blackout and some may dissent.
- Coupon auction sizes stay steady until February 2028, then rise in 2-5y maturities; next year's funding comes via bills, up ~$1trn to 23.7% of debt.
- Market hopes for term supply cuts are likely misplaced; instead the Treasury may scale up long-maturity liquidity buybacks, effectively twisting the curve.
- Any twist depends on bill demand; money fund balances rose just 3% this year and inflows are unlikely to match 2022-23, capping bill share near 25%.
Key numbers
- Q3 GDP forecast (q/q)
- 3.6%
- Q3 consumption forecast (q/q)
- 3.4%
- Bill share of debt next year
- 23.7%
- Increase in bill supply next year
- ~$1trn
- 10y yield intraday high (Oct 7)
- 5.36%
Main risks
- A larger bill share risks widening bill/OIS spreads and raising roll-over sensitivity of debt costs.
- Tactical Treasury shorts may be unwound, but structural CTA shorts persist; higher volatility could force further risk reduction.
- A continued risk-off shift, including doubts over AI capex, could add a safe-haven bid to Treasuries.
Corresponding source evidence
US Rates Strategy Weekly October 23, 2026 Joseph Abate, US Rates Strategy Monty Gandhi, US Rates Strategy Troy Ludtka, US Economics joseph.abate@smbcnikko-si.com mgandhi@smbc-cm.com troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212 893-1592 1 212 224-5114 1 212-224-5483 • The Fed is expected to keep rates hold at next week’s meeting.
· 2026• We look for the Treasury to keep auction sizes steady until February 2028 at which point it will begin increasing coupons in the 2-5y maturities.
· February 2028We expect bill issuance to increase nearly $1trn next year to 23.7% of outstanding debt.
· next year
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMBCUS Rates Strategy Weekly | 10/23/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS | 10/27/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKfx daily dollar buying returns ahead of fomc | 10/27/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| NatixisFOMC Preview: Ghosting the CPI (for now) | 10/26/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by SMBC on 10/23/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/23/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction