When Will The Bank of Canada Resume Buying Bonds?GLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
加拿大央行何时恢复购债？ · 全球经济
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank Economics expects the Bank of Canada to resume secondary-market Government of Canada bond purchases in late 2027 or 2028, when currency in circulation overtakes its remaining bond holdings. Timing depends on whether Canada Mortgage Bonds and inflation-protected debt are counted. Minimal currency growth implies replacing most of $8B, $13B and $35B maturing in 2028, 2029 and 2030, possibly favouring 2032–2038 maturities.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/21/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · US 10Y Treasury
- Time horizon
- 2027 · 2028 · 2030 · 2026
Key arguments
- BoC has signalled purchases may resume in late 2027 or 2028, conducted on the secondary market.
- Target is a GoC bond portfolio roughly equal to currency in circulation; holdings are now approaching that level.
- Rising NGDP/currency ratio could delay the crossover and push bond buying later than prior estimates.
- Large 2030 maturity block and longer portfolio duration suggest 2028 purchases may favour 2032–2038 maturities.
Key numbers
- Nominal GoC bonds held by BoC
- C$136B
- Par maturing in 2028
- C$8,435M
- Par maturing in 2029
- C$12,800M
- Par maturing in 2030
- C$34,529M
- Projected currency in circulation, 2027/2028
- C$127B / C$128B
Main risks
- Faster currency growth would bring purchases forward; slower growth would delay them.
- Including Canada Mortgage Bonds ($4.2B) and inflation-protected debt ($4.4B) could push purchases to 2028.
- Shorter government issuance could lower both BoC and GoC duration, altering purchase composition.
Corresponding source evidence
• The BoC has indicated that it may resume government bond purchases for normal operations in late 2027 or 2028.
· 2027• Under a projection of minimal currency growth, the BoC will need to replace the most of the $8B, $13B and $35B of par value expiring in 2028, 2029 and 2030, respectively.
· 2028Relatively small values of Canada Mortgage Bonds and inflation- protected debt held by the BoC may lower these values slightly.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/21/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/21/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction